Our turn...

Posted February 23rd, 2010 by Bill Kardas. 208 comments

Up to this point, it's been a depressing winter for the snow lovers here on the blog.  So far this winter, we've had plenty of storms for the Mid Atlantic, the south, the west...everywhere but Central New York.  Well, it looks like the snow lovers will finally get their turn.  Two storms this week will bring many of us the largest single event snow totals many of us have had all year.

The first storm arrived last night, bringing many of us a wet couple of inches of snow.  That storm, in Canada now, is heading to the north and east.  The next storm is developing off the Atlantic Coast.  This one will interact with a weak trough situated across Central New York left over from the first storm.

An east wind on the north side of the low will bring Atlantic moisture across New England.  Without that trough in place, we'd only get a few inches of snow.  That trough will act as a lifting mechanism on a very moist airmass, creating heavy snow over a narrow area.  Expect heavy snows for Central New York tonight, heaviest east of Utica. 

This a strange setup to get heavy snow in Central New York.  There are some questions as to where the heavy the snow will fall tonight.  One of our computer models (the NAM) is going ballistic with snowfall totals over CNY and points east.  The other one (GFS) is much more tempered with accumulations.  We're going with a blend between the two for tonight.  I think 3"-7" may be a starting point for snow, because if things work out we could be getting a lot more than that.

The Atlantic storm moves inland on Wednesday.  Heaviest snows will fall from Utica to the east.  There will be a sharp cutoff of snow with this storm, making the forecast pretty tough.  At this point, an addtional 3"-7" may fall from Little Falls to the east, with a very sharp cutoff to the east (perhaps only 1-3" for Herkimer west).  Again, these are only preliminary thoughts...look for our snowfall maps posted on our website for the latest.

As if this wasn't enough, a bigger storm will form right behind tonight's storm.  This one has the potential to be the largest of the season.  In fact, it's possible that this storm may be too large for it's own good.  Warm air aloft has the potential to turn snow to sleet during the middle of this event.  The warm air will come in from the east, and may draw as far inland as Central New York and the North Country.  Winds will be  strong with this one, and precipitation totals will likely exceed 1.0" across all of Central New York.  If that stays all snow, we'll see a foot or more out of this, but if any sleet mixes in, the snow totals will be cut down significantly.  We need a few more model runs to know how this storm unfolds.  In the meantime, we'll hold our breath.  

Either sleet or snow, the Thursday storm will create very strong winds.  Per BUFKIT mixing layer and wind speeds, wind gusts could exceed 40mph during the strongest part of the storm (Thursday night).  Once we get through tonight/Wednesday's storm we'll focus and fine tune on all the details for Thursday.  One event at a time! 

Lots of opportunity for heavy snows over the next few days.  We'll keep you posted with the latest information in the comments below. 

Tags: heavy snow, winter storm, snow

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Comments

  1. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Lets hope all this verifies FOR ONCE. Bring on the snow.

    Posted February 23rd at 7:37 AM

  2. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    We got a 1/2 inch of wet snow last night and that was it.

    The temp is__34*__ and the barometric pressure is holding steady as to where it was last night.

    It looks like I had better get the snowbanks pushed back side the driveway today. That is if I can move them.

    Posted February 23rd at 7:50 AM

  3. MG(Point Rock):

    Posted February 23rd at 8:24 AM

  4. MG(Point Rock):

    There sure was a lot of variation in the snowfall amounts last night. I wound up with 6.5 inches of heavy, wet snow. The liquid equivalent was 0.56. It was tough getting out of my driveway this morning. The snowdepth, at 20”, is finally deeper than it was after the lake-effect storms in mid-December.

    Posted February 23rd at 8:26 AM

  5. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    MG,

    A southerly wind flow created some uplifting (bonus) snows over your area. The opposite effect happened here in the Mohawk Valley. A snow shadow explains how the valley locations only picked up an inch or two.

    Posted February 23rd at 8:44 AM

  6. Bob (Utica):

    Bill – As far as Friday goes, if you had an event planned for that evening in Utica, would you still feel it would be OK to proceed? Sounds like most everything will be wrapped up by Friday morning? Thanks!

    Posted February 23rd at 9:16 AM

  7. Justin (Whitesboro):

    12z NAM again is further west with the heavier precip painting 1.5 qpf…maybe the GFS will show the same thing?

    Posted February 23rd at 9:19 AM

  8. fairfield:

    definitely a difference between the les we’ve been getting and what we got overnight, much heavier and even though it was blowing it didn’t blow around up here like usual. it made my legs tired to walk through lol. got maybe a couple inches… more…more….more yipeeeeeee

    Posted February 23rd at 9:22 AM

  9. jessie (ilion):

    BRING ON THE SNOW WANT TO TAKE MY KIDS OUT THIS WEEKEND

    Posted February 23rd at 9:41 AM

  10. fopo plower:

    you got a 1/2 last night, in forestport we got like 8-9 inches and its still coming

    Posted February 23rd at 9:59 AM

  11. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Bob,

    Though the worst of the storm will be Thursday night into Friday morning, this will not be a typical storm. The storm is expected to stall over Central New York. That means snow and windy conditions will stay with us on Friday and even into Saturday.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:08 AM

  12. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    New 12z NAM is in, and continues to advertise a big hit for snow tonight, lasting even into tomorrow. Unless the GFS continues to hold off on this, we are ready to pull the trigger and bump up snowfall totals for tonight and Friday. We’ll wait for the 12z to make the call….

    Posted February 23rd at 10:11 AM

  13. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Just under 2” of heavy wet snow, the LEQ was .24!! I don’t want to much more of this kind of snow, its hard to move around!!!

    Looks like the rest of the week is going to be very interesting for the weather crew and us weather crazy enthusiasts!

    Posted February 23rd at 10:18 AM

  14. Randy (SUNY Cobleskill):

    I really hope that both of these storms hit CNY. I am getting sick and tired of each storm going to our south and east. It’s time Central New York gets a good storm that blankets us under a couple feet of snow.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:21 AM

  15. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    I am surely not an expert when it comes to reading the forecast maps on ewall BUT Its been a LONG time since I have seen QPF forecasts like these. The 84 hour totals are staggering even if there is sleet involved, they are unreal.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:25 AM

  16. Working in Utica:

    Time to dust off the snowblower! Any time frame as to when we can expect snow to start moving into the area? Thanks, folks!

    Posted February 23rd at 10:26 AM

  17. Amy (Salisbury):

    2.5” overnight. Bring it!!!!!!!!

    Posted February 23rd at 10:36 AM

  18. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Here’s a look at the 12z NAM numbers: 0.83” of QPF for Utica through tomorrow morning, 1.5” total through tomorrow night. The scarry part? Total QPF for Syracuse is literally half of that. There will be a very sharp cut off to this snow. The trend has been further west, and the intensity as been getting greater over the past 12 hours.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:37 AM

  19. Gordon (Northwestern):

    5.1” of snow from last night.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:44 AM

  20. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    12z GFS still is holding out on us…keeps the heavy stuff to the east. Still, we’re close enough to pick up several inches of snow tonight and tomorrow. Will have a snowfall forecast update in the next hour.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:44 AM

  21. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Winter storm warning posted for the NWS Albany zones (herkimer east)

    Posted February 23rd at 10:45 AM

  22. Rob (Whitesboro):

    These storms are certainly packing a punch. There’s not much time to recover in between either. It’s not out of the question that areas could have a Winter storm warning and a Blizzard watch up at the same time tomorrow. Crazy.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:53 AM

  23. Rob (Whitesboro):

    The GFS is alot warmer aloft for round two. That’s not good news. Someones going to get a blizzard though. The GFS has a 976 low..that’s intense.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:05 AM

  24. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    None of our other models came into agreement with the NAM. The Canadian, UK, and GFS keep the heaviest precipitation to the east. With that being said, areas east of Utica will likely still cash in on the first storm, with 6-12” of snow possible tonight through tomorrow afternoon. The rest of us will see about half that, 4-8”. There will be a very sharp cutoff to these snows, so we’ll need to keep watch on where the snows develop tonight. Areas closer to Syracuse (western Oneida County) and the Tug Hill will see the least amount of snow out of this…perhaps only 2-4”. Here is the snowfall map for storm #1

    Posted February 23rd at 11:20 AM

  25. South of Utica:

    What time can we expect this storm to start today and what times will it be the worst? Same for Thursday’s potential storm…when is that supposed to hit?

    Posted February 23rd at 11:28 AM

  26. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    SOU:
    First storm arrives this evening and will be with us through early tomorrow afternoon. The second storm arrives late Thursday afternoon and will stick around through the weekend.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:35 AM

  27. MD (CB):

    Is it just me or is this storm on the coast showing a clockwise rotation?Aren’t they usually counter clockwise?What does this mean?Storm or the century?Accuweather has most of NY in a Blizzard with this storm .

    Posted February 23rd at 11:38 AM

  28. Gerry:

    So Rob says it’s showing warming, does this mean either storm could give us rain? That would bite, either way it looks like heavy wet snow with both storms!

    Posted February 23rd at 11:40 AM

  29. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Winter storm warnings in effect for Oneida, Herkimer, Otsego, Hamilton, Fulton, Montgomery, Schoharie County until 7pm Wednesday. Advisories for Madison, Chenango until 4pm Wed.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:56 AM

  30. Cher:

    Utica is now under a winter storm warning

    Posted February 23rd at 11:57 AM

  31. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Folks,

    Please be more specific (1st storm = tonight, 2nd storm = Thursday) when mentioning the storms. Tonight’s event will be a heavy snow east, Thursday’s storm will be a strong wind and widespread snow/sleet event. Thanks.

    Posted February 23rd at 12:00 PM

  32. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Gerry,

    It’s too cold for either storm to give rain. Sleet will be an issue with the Thursday storm, but we’ll cross that bridge after we get through this tough event.

    Posted February 23rd at 12:13 PM

  33. randy Vitullo :

    The GFS has us for 3 inches of precip. by Friday 6AM. The NAM is showing about 2.5 by the same time. Either way, it is shutdown time.

    Posted February 23rd at 12:21 PM

  34. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    At work in Oneida and getting a light drizzle right now.
    Precipitation already starting to fill in from south to north on the radar.

    Posted February 23rd at 12:25 PM

  35. Randy Vitullo :

    Sorry, whatever I saw on the GFS isn’t showing it now. How did that happen? The 12z GFS was showing all red and purples for CNY. I left the site, came back five minutes later to show someone and it is all blue.

    Posted February 23rd at 12:26 PM

  36. Ben Burns (New Hartford):

    I just wanted to commend Bill Kardas and WKTV’s weather team for this blog and the overall level of attention they pay to answering its readers’ concerns. I’m very impressed. Thanks for all the great info!

    Posted February 23rd at 12:39 PM

  37. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Randy,

    GFS gives the area much less QPF than NAM. This is one of the forecasting issues at play. The model of my choice is the MM5 from Stony Brook. Here is a look at the 24 hr precipitation from this evening through Wednesday evening if you’re interested

    Posted February 23rd at 12:41 PM

  38. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    I just laughed out-loud louder than I can ever remember. You gotta love accuweather, it’s almost like the National Enquirer of weather; you know it’s exaggerated but you can’t help but look. It’s referring to the possible storm on Thursday-Friday as “Epic” – a storm of “Historical Proportions”, it goes on to say that portions of Upstate New York will seem like a “Snow Hurricane” and the past storms in the Mid-Atlantic will “pale in comparison to it”.
    The only thing left is for them to refer to it as “Biblical”.

    On a more serious note, this light drizzle in Oneida has turned into a steady light rain.

    Posted February 23rd at 12:50 PM

  39. Mel (Westernville):

    Just went out and plowed 5” of cement like snow – that stuff just rolls into boulders off the plow blade!

    Posted February 23rd at 1:04 PM

  40. Becky (West Leyden):

    Picked up 7.25 inches overnight thru 9 AM. My water content was the same as MG’s

    Posted February 23rd at 1:14 PM

  41. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Looks like the Capital District is gonna get crushed off the NAM< QPF. WOW

    Posted February 23rd at 1:17 PM

  42. dcg - rome:

    just started flurries here in rome.
    btw…how do you guys, who obviously understand way more about this stuff than i do, figure out how much snow will fall by looking at the precip. (moisture) amount??
    Thanks!!!

    Posted February 23rd at 1:19 PM

  43. Winter Hater:

    Great. The Snow Cheerleader Cry babies on this blog have their wishes fullfilled after a string of above snowfall winters for the last 10 years. Hope you will all be happy when the power goes out for days.

    Posted February 23rd at 1:26 PM

  44. Becky (West Leyden):

    The conditions for storm #2 are going to be Perfect for development. This will be a long duration storm 18-24 hours of heavy wet snow (12-24 inches with 30 inches in spots). Add to that winds of 30 -40 mph with higher gust and you have a mess. It looks like anything east of I-81 is going to get hammered. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a true blizzard. I don’t know if I would use the word historic, but it will truly be very very impressive.

    Posted February 23rd at 1:43 PM

  45. Becky (West Leyden):

    snow has started up again

    Posted February 23rd at 1:45 PM

  46. Charles:

    Bill,
    Do you think Frankfort may see up to a foot of snow from this evening into tomorrow? It seems that way since we are in that color.

    #44: Becky,
    Do you really think we could see 1-2 feet plus from storm #2? How does areas like Frankfort in the Mohawk Valley look for that? Could their be alot of power outages too since it is a wet snow?
    Thank you all!

    Posted February 23rd at 1:48 PM

  47. Winter: Kinda Lover, Kinda Hater:

    Dear Winter Hater, Laughing hard.. Funny post.. Think you might be exaggerating the power being out for days though. Winter is almost over you can hang tough for a bit longer, I have faith in you. And Ben Burns from Remsen you have it right.. The WKTV Weather Team gets a standing ovation from me. These guys and gals really do a great job on this blog. Thanks for all your hard work…. Clapping

    Posted February 23rd at 2:32 PM

  48. fairfield:

    hope everyone’s gen. is gassed up. i’ll be good for about a week. hehe, though i don’t think it will be that bad

    Posted February 23rd at 2:34 PM

  49. Utica:

    Can everyone say SNOWDAY!

    Posted February 23rd at 2:41 PM

  50. Mrboom:

    Figures .. im on vaction this week …. yea utica… #49 ill say snowday :)

    Posted February 23rd at 2:50 PM

  51. MG(Point Rock):

    It’s interesting that while BGM has Oneida county under a warning for tonight, BUF has decided against even issuing an advisory for Lewis county (according to their forecast discussion). There seems to be some kind of difference of opinion between the NWS offices

    Posted February 23rd at 2:56 PM

  52. Becky (West Leyden):

    Charles, It is still a potential storm; it’s still too early get to excited (one way or the other). However, I do think it’s very possible. the storm will be pulling in a lot of moisture from the deep south and tropics. mix in the cold air and strong winds and you have all the ingredients of a very strong storm. If the track is where it looks to go is right, eastern Pennsylvania and up into central and eastern New York into Vermont will see very heavy snow. As for power outages, any strong storm has the potential to cause problems. Please keep in mind these are my thoughts not WKTV’s. It’s too early to worry, as we’ve seen this winter, a lot can change in 48 hours. I would just keep checking on the blog and watching WKTV.

    Posted February 23rd at 2:59 PM

  53. Becky (West Leyden):

    MG, there is still uncertainty on the exact track. My ideas are based on a worse or best case scenario depending on your point of view.

    Posted February 23rd at 3:07 PM

  54. SAB, St. Johnsville:

    We will get missed yet again!

    Posted February 23rd at 3:12 PM

  55. Winter Hater:

    #47 Hey humor is all we got. We cant change mother nature. seriously though ,I hope there is no power outages. I live in a rural area with lots of trees & have expierienced outages with winds much less than what is expected. Then it takes National Grid days to get us restored.

    Posted February 23rd at 3:16 PM

  56. Mel (Westernville):

    Now thats something we don;t see very often – NWS BGM has a Winter Storm Warning until 7:00pm Wednesday and then a watch starts later Wednesday night.

    Posted February 23rd at 3:20 PM

  57. Clifford (Garrattsville, Otsego):

    Why is accuweather predicting a paralyzing blizzard for Thursday into Friday with wind gusts up to 74 mph for central NY ?????????

    Posted February 23rd at 3:31 PM

  58. Justin (Whitesboro):

    18z NAM again a bit further west with the heavier precip!! 1.0 QPF by wed. night!!

    Posted February 23rd at 3:32 PM

  59. Steve (East side of Kyser Lake) Oppenheim:

    Dear Winter Hater, I dislike winter as much as you but I believe in the old adage of “if you want to live primative, you have to THINK primative”.
    You can ask Mike here, I dread big snowstorms but I am prepared for them. You see I live half way down a 30% hillside on the east side of a frozen lake on 10 very private and rural acres and when it snows, for some reason, Salisbury, Dolgeville, and Oppenheim (where I am is the bulleye). Don’t believe me, wait till you see the CNY storm totals for this potential Thurs/Sat event. The Valentines day 2007 storm dumped 44 inches outside my door.
    Living here requires the ownership of my own snow removal system (front end loader to dig through 44 inches of snow) including being prepared for power outages from NIMO.
    I am also surrounded by 100 ft tall pine trees and when the power goes out, it can be out for a week.
    A power gen system is a must.
    I have both a gas gen set and battery storage capacity using a converter.
    Naturally I have all the dry staples, drinking water and other things I might need for an extended period of time indoors.
    And I also have plenty of time to ask myself “What was I THINKING....... moving here from the Florida Keys 10 years ago???”
    Humor is all we have….. :-)
    Best, Steve

    Posted February 23rd at 3:39 PM

  60. Ron (remsen):

    They radar is showing heavy snows towards Albany. What time is that going to start around here??

    Posted February 23rd at 3:43 PM

  61. Matt S. (Deerfield):

    I too think that accuweather is overdoing it on the forecast for the thu-fri storm. I hope it misses us.

    Posted February 23rd at 3:50 PM

  62. Adam Musyt:

    Good evening!

    All of the latest data coming into the weather center still points to a significant snowfall for CNY – and a very heavy snowfall across Eastern New York. There are still some model disagreements – but things appear to be trending in the right direction. The NAM model, which has been very very generous with precipitation has backed off just a bit on the 18z run for much of Oneida County – bringing things more in line with the GFS model solution. We’re still going to keep our forecast at 4”-8” of heavy wet snow for the Utica area, with higher amounts east of town and lower amounts to the west.

    Snows are expected to begin to intensify between 6 and 9 PM

    Map will be up shortly.

    Posted February 23rd at 4:03 PM

  63. Mel (Westernville):

    Been snowing off and on all day here. Some folks came up to ride snowmobiles and said it was drizzling all the way to the state park before it changed over to light snow.

    Posted February 23rd at 4:07 PM

  64. Kim- morris :

    HOT DOG!!! Bring on the SNOW!!! :)
    Its snowing here in Morris Just started less then a hour ago. :)

    Posted February 23rd at 4:10 PM

  65. Adam Musyt:

    In-house computer model snow forecast through tomorrow evening

    Posted February 23rd at 4:26 PM

  66. Cedarville:

    Moderate to heavy snow here for the last 20 minutes or so, big flakes.

    Posted February 23rd at 4:30 PM

  67. jake{utica]:

    Are we going to get 4-8 by the morning

    Posted February 23rd at 4:31 PM

  68. allen (Sauquoit):

    Adam,

    That looks great, can’t wait to see what that says for the storm on Thursday! Looks to be something that might be quite impressive!

    Posted February 23rd at 4:32 PM

  69. jake(utica}:

    I hope we get pounded

    Posted February 23rd at 4:35 PM

  70. Mrboom:

    As said in here before .. i did look at accu-weather (for a laugh still love wktv) every story they have on there is ramped up so much. I actually did laugh out loud. According to them the 4 horsemen of the apocalpse are coming followed by the black plague, oh and a blizzard hurricane.. i mean seriosuly … people pay them ? Keep up the good work wktv crew ..

    Posted February 23rd at 4:37 PM

  71. Cedarville:

    I too had to take a look at Accuweather and got a good laugh, although their forecast and advance talk on the big one does not seem too much different from the one here, just full of panic-inducing adjectives.

    Posted February 23rd at 4:43 PM

  72. utica:

    accu said 27inchs between now and the 27th

    Posted February 23rd at 4:49 PM

  73. sam:

    maybe will get a snowday

    Posted February 23rd at 4:52 PM

  74. Cedarville:

    flakes have turned to sugar falling here, started out quite healthy for 30 min or so.

    Posted February 23rd at 4:59 PM

  75. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I’m guessing 5” tonight at my house. I’ll let you know in the morning. That storm on Thursday is so intense, it might end up working against us. Ratios, warm air aloft and a possible dry slot are all things that need to be considered.

    Posted February 23rd at 5:03 PM

  76. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    My parents in Troy have about 3” of a very heavy snow, coming down heavy now. The snows tonight will likely be another wet accumulation. Better to get it shoveled tomorrow though as soon as possible. The next one will make it that much harder to get rid of if you dont.

    Posted February 23rd at 5:27 PM

  77. cedarville:

    is there really gonna be a blizzard

    Posted February 23rd at 5:38 PM

  78. Justin (Whitesboro):

    WKTV looking at the current radar loop when do you expect the snow to pick up in intensity?

    Posted February 23rd at 6:00 PM

  79. Adam Musyt:

    78,

    The snows will become steadier and heavier over the next few hours. It will be a process with areas like Cooperstown seeing it first. Snows should be appreciably steadier and heavier by 10 or 11 for Utica/Rome.

    Posted February 23rd at 6:13 PM

  80. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    Snowing now.

    Posted February 23rd at 6:13 PM

  81. Randy (SUNY Cobleskill):

    It’s now snowing very heavy here now in Cobleskill, paths and roadways are starting to get covered already.

    Posted February 23rd at 6:19 PM

  82. Adam (hecla):

    what a long wait for winter to finally arrive!!!......too bad theres only a few weeks left :(

    Posted February 23rd at 6:22 PM

  83. Randy (SUNY Cobleskill):

    About 2 inches of snow has fallen here in the last 30 Minutes

    Posted February 23rd at 6:35 PM

  84. barb is there really gonna be a blizzard on friday:

    Posted February 23rd at 7:16 PM

  85. Winter Hater:

    Hi Steve from Keyser Lake! Yeah I know where you live, I used to live in Dolgeville & walked the old Railroad bed daily. I now Live in the Spruce Lake Area in Salisbury. Even though this winter has lacked the heavy snow ,up here even before the new snow we had about a 1’ of snowpack. What most people dont know is actually over the last 10 years,we have averaged above normal snowfalls.

    Posted February 23rd at 7:21 PM

  86. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Moderate to heavy snow here.

    Posted February 23rd at 7:35 PM

  87. Mrboom -Canastota:

    I think im the most western person here- its still lightly raining here.. no snow yet .. Adam am i gonna miss these storms out here in canastota?

    Posted February 23rd at 7:38 PM

  88. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    Picked up 4 inches of heavy wet snow today.. When I plowed this morning the snow flew off in huge chunks. Snowing here and roads are snow covered. light snow for now but watching the band move towards us. Looking to add on the totals and bring us close to seasonal totals by weeks end. A blizzard would be something to talk about after what has been a lack luster winter so to speak. Mr. Boom.. you won’t totally miss out but heavier snow could be just to the east of you.

    Posted February 23rd at 7:57 PM

  89. Barneveld:

    Chris in HP, I got 2” last night on Korber Rd. and light snow today with no accumulation. You got 4” today?

    Posted February 23rd at 8:05 PM

  90. Adam Musyt:

    87,

    Tonight/tomorrow morning’s event will likely bring less snow to your area that further east. You’re still in the ball game for Thursday-Friday, just like the rest of us, depending on the exact track.

    Posted February 23rd at 8:08 PM

  91. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Precip appears to be getting closer to us here, can not wait!

    Posted February 23rd at 8:17 PM

  92. Jim (Whitesboro):

    radar looks to be filling in a little bit heavier and closer to the Herkimer/Oneida county line, no?

    Posted February 23rd at 8:19 PM

  93. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    We need a bit more of a western movement or tonight is going to be a bust! Crew is this shield of snow going to move west at all for tonight??? It seems to be stuck east of State 8 down here , looks like otsego and delaware are getting hammered, is it going to move west at all tonight??

    Posted February 23rd at 8:20 PM

  94. Adam Musyt:

    Jeff H,

    The heaviest precip was always expected to be over Eastern New York. Having said that, there are some signs of moderate snow across Susquehanna County, PA and Broome County, NY with radar DBZ values around 25 or so. Snows are also increasing now across Otsego County and the trend should continue over the next hour or two in Southern Herkimer County.

    We still expect the precipitation shield to fill in more as the evening progresses – so no changes for now

    Posted February 23rd at 8:26 PM

  95. Mike(Leonardsvlle):

    Any new updates on the storm later in the week Adam. Looks like the models went a bit west, is that bad new for us. Now if this storms stalls, could we realistically see 2 feet out of this?

    Posted February 23rd at 8:32 PM

  96. Valley:

    Very light snow in Frankfort

    Posted February 23rd at 8:33 PM

  97. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Yes I know that Adam, but with what it looks like now it doesn’t appear that we would get much more then a couple of inches (1-3) with the way the radar looks now that is why I was wondering if there was going to be any more western movement of the precip.

    Posted February 23rd at 8:34 PM

  98. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    “Wow” I guess we are really lucky that we only had a 1/2” of wet snow this morning.

    I just checked out 3 different radars and I think Adam is right and it will be a while before it starts snowing.

    I’m sorry but I still like the local radar that accu weather has. The Griffiss location is perfect for our location. But you can also get other radar location like NYC, Albany etc.

    I would say NYC and Poughkipsie are being hammered right now.

    I think we are going to have to wait a while for the snow that is coming from Binghamton

    Another interesting thing, The hand on the barometer is froze in one spot. (29.8) The Blizzard of “66” the barometer hand went below the bottom peg (29) I would guess the reading was 28 or lower. Anyway that was a long time ago.

    Posted February 23rd at 8:35 PM

  99. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Snowing pretty darn good here. Everything is heavilly caked in a thick layer of snow. Its accumulating pretty fast too. I’ll get a measurement in a bit.

    Posted February 23rd at 8:44 PM

  100. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    snow starting to pick up

    Posted February 23rd at 8:52 PM

  101. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    WOW!! Just looked out 1 minute ago, it was picking up. Now its heavy big flakes.

    Posted February 23rd at 8:55 PM

  102. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Solid 2.00” inches here since 6p.m. Were not even into the heart of this yet.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:02 PM

  103. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    Snowing Very Heavy!!! Big flakes. White out. What are the conditions for tomorrow for the bus for my area.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:08 PM

  104. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Not much going on here. It’s more like a light mist falling here. Temps is 33 degrees.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:11 PM

  105. Adam Musyt:

    #95, Mike,

    Thursday-Friday still looks to have a lot of moisture but with a track that far inland there will be some concern for some sleet possibly mixing in. So while blockbuster snow is possible, we’re not quite sold on it just yet.

    Mike,

    Thanks for the update.

    We’re into a steady light snow here at the TV station with a slushy coating of accumulation. Not really enough to measure just yet.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:11 PM

  106. Mrboom:

    Hey thanx adam .. yea im your most western person on here… but i think you for answering me. Itry to keep up with you all ..and this had gotten be the most educated bunch of weather ensuists iv seen. Sigh… ok ill wait for thurs-friday event not even snowing here :(

    Posted February 23rd at 9:27 PM

  107. JoeMcG:

    Snowing at a pretty good clip in Little Falls…low visibility and slick streets

    Posted February 23rd at 9:36 PM

  108. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Light snow falling now! Temp 33*

    Posted February 23rd at 9:37 PM

  109. Adam Musyt:

    Snow is picking up somewhat here and we have a quarter inch of new accumulation.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:41 PM

  110. Carl (Sauquoit):

    Hey Adam..is the heavy precip going to make into the Sauquoit area. If so when?

    Posted February 23rd at 9:50 PM

  111. Rob (Whitesboro):

    BGM says heavy snow should still make it into Utica between 2-7 in the morning. Hopefully me and Justin too!

    Posted February 23rd at 9:50 PM

  112. Adam Musyt:

    111,

    At least moderate snow should. The radar has been slowly filling in – so it still looks like a gradual intensification over the next couple of hours and then steady moderate snow lasting for much of the overnight.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:51 PM

  113. Carl (Sauquoit):

    Thanks for the response Adam. You guys do great work. Looks like tomorrows commute is going to be rough.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:53 PM

  114. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Snow has picked up significantly in intensity and there is about a half an inch. Ill have a measurement at midnight.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:54 PM

  115. Mel (Westernville):

    Went to Rome to play cards at 6 and light snow here but drizzle at the bottom of the hill. Driving home at 9:30 drizzle all the way to the Quick & Easy in the village but as soon as we started going up the hill the road was snow covered.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:57 PM

  116. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Noaa is predicting 5-10” for eastern Oneida County…snow still very light here!!

    Posted February 23rd at 9:57 PM

  117. Sean(Oriskany):

    Adam, my The Weather Channel desktop application is now only saying that we will only recieve 1-3” here. Is this true or false?

    Posted February 23rd at 9:58 PM

  118. Adam Musyt:

    117,

    We don’t comment on other forecasts. Our forecast hasn’t changed.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:59 PM

  119. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Very light snow showers/mist is all that’s been falling here – I would be exaggerating if I said there was a dusting on the ground – still at 34 degrees

    Posted February 23rd at 10:01 PM

  120. Sean(Oriskany):

    I completely understand Adam. Thanks anyways. Think Snow!

    Posted February 23rd at 10:05 PM

  121. Adam Musyt:

    113,

    Thanks for the kind words.

    Gang,

    We should be on track to still see our 4-8 for Utica and nearby areas. There are some gaps in the snow shield – but its pretty clear that the general trend has been for it to fill in over the past couple of hours – especially with the western extent now as far west as Auburn. The heaviest snow may well stay east of NY-8 as pointed out earlier – but at least for now I feel comfortable with our going forecast amounts.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:05 PM

  122. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    Been snow pretty heavy for the last hour.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:06 PM

  123. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    i think your snow amounts are almost right on the ball. Great job so far.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:09 PM

  124. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    Adam,
    What are the conditions tomorrow morning for the bus for my area.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:18 PM

  125. Adam Musyt:

    Most roadways in CNY should be snowcovered and slippery for the morning commute.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:19 PM

  126. Becky (West Leyden):

    At this time I’m getting light snow. It should pick up in an hour or two.since 4:00 pm, I’ve picked up a little less than one half inch of snow

    Posted February 23rd at 10:19 PM

  127. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Not much snow here so far. Just a good dusting.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:54 PM

  128. Adam Musyt:

    0.5” so far tonight. Moderate snow falling now.

    Looking at the brand new run of the WRF (00z) – the model takes the next storm on a very interesting track. The model actually takes the storm from a position off of LI on Thursday evening, back across SE NY Thursday Night and into the Poconos by Friday morning. Winds with this storm are going to be intense – and the counterclockwise flow around the system will draw in air from over the Atlantic. Should this pan out – we’re going to have to seriously consider the possibility of some rain and sleet to mix with the snow on Thursday Night, with jackpot snows across the Poconos and Central Mountains of Pennsylvania.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:57 PM

  129. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    3.00” inches here as of 11p.m. and snowing heavy! At least an inch an hour right now.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:58 PM

  130. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Alright, I’m giving up any hope for snow out of this one – sidewalks/roads are clear down to the pavement, my car has beads of water streaming down it.
    Would be pretty funny if we wind up with nothing out of these two storms.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:02 PM

  131. yup:

    I am definitely not getting excited over this one either especially after this winter. Everything always gets hyped up and nothing comes of it… bring on spring at this point! I mean its pretty obvious anyone on here can sit and look at computer models and guess what it is going to do.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:13 PM

  132. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Potter Hollow, NY reporting 16.25” inches of snow and still falling!!!

    Posted February 23rd at 11:14 PM

  133. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Light snow falling with 1/4” of new snow this evening.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:14 PM

  134. Ron in Frankfot Hill on Higby:

    At least 3” on the ground and snowing heavy at the moment,had 4” from last nights storm !!

    Posted February 23rd at 11:22 PM

  135. Randy (SUNY Cobleskill):

    6 Inches have fallen so far and it’s coming down very heavy again after it slowed down. Tree Branches are starting to break as well from all the snow on them.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:28 PM

  136. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Getting into some of the heavy stuff now. Visability is down to 1/4 mile and the road is covered.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:31 PM

  137. Adam Musyt:

    Snow increasing here too. Another quarter inch in the last half hour. We’re up to 0.75” for this event at our studios.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:32 PM

  138. Jim (Whitesboro):

    amazing about potter hollow, it’s only 90 miles southeast of Utica, what a difference.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:33 PM

  139. Adam Musyt:

    Wow. The 00z run of the NAM/WRF actually is forecasting a high of 42 degrees on Friday. The model is definitely on board with the idea of a warm flow of air off the Atlantic.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:35 PM

  140. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah storm #2 is not looking good…or at least nothing impressive in terms of snow. It looks like a quick 6” and then the mess starts.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:50 PM

  141. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I haven’t seen it snow this hard all year. I would say the visability is less than a 1/4 mile right now. I’ve had lower visabilities but that was with some wind. The wind here is calm right now.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:54 PM

  142. Allen (Sauquoit):

    That does not surprise me…actually kind of pisses me off. We can’t catch a break this winter, or lack of winter.

    Posted February 23rd at 11:55 PM

  143. Allen (Sauquoit):

    Things can always change though I suppose, they have all winter!

    Posted February 24th at 12:00 AM

  144. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    1.2 inches as of midnight. Still falling moderately.

    Posted February 24th at 12:09 AM

  145. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    4.25” inches of snow as of midnight and falling steadily.

    Posted February 24th at 12:14 AM

  146. Adam Musyt:

    Heavy snow now. 0.75” in the last 45 minutes – and we are up to 1.5” for the event so far at the tv station.

    Posted February 24th at 12:15 AM

  147. Rob (Whitesboro):

    1.5” here as of right now.

    Posted February 24th at 12:18 AM

  148. mike:

    adam, where are you seeing that 42 degrees on friday, im certainly not seeing it on the new 00z wrf model, it looks like 32-33 for utica on friday…?

    Posted February 24th at 1:19 AM

  149. Adam Musyt:

    148,

    It’s in the MOS guidance or model output statistics.

    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmet.pl?sta=KRME

    Folks,

    Roads are in absolutely terrible shape. Definitely the worst I’ve seen so far this winter. On my way home I saw two cars off the road on route 49. You’ll definitely need to exercise caution. What typically is a 20-25 minute drive took 45 minutes for me tonight.

    1.5” very heavy wet snow in Rome as of 1:45 AM and counting.

    Posted February 24th at 1:53 AM

  150. Matt T:

    Two things,

    Why do we always get killed by warm air. Every major storm we’ve had gets killed.

    Second, I know were not really suppose to do this but there is a large discrepency between the Albany Networks and Syracuse/Utica on accumulations from the oneida county line west. I notice a trend on that, any idea why?

    Posted February 24th at 2:19 AM

  151. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    5.00” inches here as of 2:15a.m. and steady snow continues to fall. Trees and wires are starting to sag under the weight of the snow. Main roads are heavilly covered and snowpacked.

    Posted February 24th at 2:39 AM

  152. Steve (kyserLake) Oppenheim:

    Mike, Only 5 inches….that’s amazing because it is so wet and heavy that it feels like 8 to 10 inches when trying to plow it. I have been out there the past 2 hours pushing this stuff and I had to quit because my automatic trans was getting really hot. The trees and lines here are really sagging under the weight but just when it seems like the branch is going to break, all of a sudden the snow falls off and the branch is able to spring back. Hopefully, that will be our saving grace that a lot of limbs don’t break off and down the power lines.
    Whoever is still up keep posting reports. I like to read them.
    Best to all, Steve

    Posted February 24th at 2:54 AM

  153. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    brownout here right now!

    Posted February 24th at 3:38 AM

  154. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    We’re Very close to loosing the power. Lights keep flickering and street lights are out on different streets.

    Posted February 24th at 3:40 AM

  155. Barb (Lake Delta):

    We have lost power. Thank goodness for the I-Phone.

    Posted February 24th at 4:20 AM

  156. Mike(Leonardsvlle):

    If storm #2 is a bust, then there are people on other websites who should just be fired over their irresponsibility.

    Posted February 24th at 4:35 AM

  157. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    2” of a very heavy snow in North Utica so far. It was a slick drive in to work this morning due to the heavy snow. The temperatures played a huge role in keeping the amounts down this time. If temperatures were even just 5 degrees cooler the snowfall would have been twice as much.

    Most of the accumulating snows are done…we will only pick up about 1-3” from here on out across most of the area. Be careful driving in to work today….it’s quite slick.

    Posted February 24th at 4:37 AM

  158. Steve (kyser Lake) oppenheim:

    Still have power here with no brown outs or flickering of lights. But the snow keeps sliding off my new steel roof and it is spooking my 4 dogs something awful. But without that roof, I can’t imagine what the live load would be right about now.
    Best to all, Steve

    Posted February 24th at 4:38 AM

  159. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    WINTER STORM WATCHES now in effect for almost all of NY State.

    Posted February 24th at 4:43 AM

  160. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    As mentioned before, we’re concerned the next storm will mix in with sleet. Looking at the new information this morning, the chances of sleet and a mixed bag have gone up. We’ll have more details on the next storm later today.

    Posted February 24th at 4:45 AM

  161. Mike(Leonardsvlle):

    Might as well make it a rain storm now. Let spring start and get rid of all the snow, sand, and salt.

    Posted February 24th at 4:46 AM

  162. cedarville :

    why is the new storm a bust

    Posted February 24th at 4:49 AM

  163. Steve (Oppenheim):

    Hi Bill, Is the power out for the middleville tower because although I still have power here, I have completely lost the wktv signal on TV.
    If that is the case, can you possibly update us on the blog here as to the latest forecast in between your broadcasts for those who can still see you.
    Thanks, Steve

    Posted February 24th at 4:52 AM

  164. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    6.00” inches here as of 5a.m. with steady snow continuing.

    Posted February 24th at 5:15 AM

  165. Steve (oppenheim):

    Is your power back on Mike?? We never lost it on this side of the river / lake that I know of.
    Best, Steve

    Posted February 24th at 5:17 AM

  166. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    Can it still be all snow on round two? How much snow?

    Posted February 24th at 5:20 AM

  167. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Steve: I never lost it but it came very close to going out. Lights dimmed right down, but it’s still on:)

    Posted February 24th at 5:24 AM

  168. JMT (Utica):

    New storm a bust. Most agencies are going with 4-8” followed by rain and temps in the middle to upper 30’s on Friday.

    Oh well :(

    Posted February 24th at 5:25 AM

  169. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Steve,

    Will do. The snow will continue for the next few hours, with perhaps another 1-2” of snow out your way. The weight of the snow is definately an issue. Areas that picked up over 4” of snow may have some power issues to deal with as that snow sticks to the trees and power lines.

    Posted February 24th at 5:26 AM

  170. Steve (oppenheim):

    Bill & Mike, Thanks for the updates you guys. Really appreciate it.
    Best, Steve

    Posted February 24th at 5:31 AM

  171. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    This snow is incredibly heavy, sticking to just about everything. When the sun comes up it should be a beautiful scene across Central New York.

    Posted February 24th at 5:34 AM

  172. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Thanks for the snow reports gang. It’s been very helpful this morning.

    Posted February 24th at 5:44 AM

  173. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    What percent for ice in the next one. weather.com is all snow.

    Posted February 24th at 6:16 AM

  174. deb in hartwick:

    (1500’) 4.5 inches…

    Posted February 24th at 6:19 AM

  175. randy Vitullo :

    It looks like both the NAM and the GFS are backing way off on the qpf for CNY. It figures…..............

    Posted February 24th at 6:19 AM

  176. Clifford (Garrattsville, Otsego):

    Cant accuweather be shut down for misleading the public ? They just posted at 5:41 am this morning that a monstrous storm is set to develop across the region on Thursday, unleashing an all-out blizzard on Central NY with the mixed bag confined to the Hudson valley and east. No one else is on board with them.

    Posted February 24th at 6:25 AM

  177. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    Clifford,
    I just watched weather ch on and they said that it will mix in to the Hudson and heavy snow into Central New York. Well just have to wait and see.

    Posted February 24th at 6:39 AM

  178. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    In my experience, if there’s any chance of sleet to mix in, 9 times out of 10 it does. We’ve been concerned about this from the beginning, and that’s why we’ve been quiet about putting out snowfall totals. Any sleet will significantly cut down on the total snowfall. We’re still not sure how this will play out, but there’s a better than even shot of this sleet mixing for at least part of Central New York during the strongest part of the storm. I’ll explain my reasoning in the next entry.

    As for what other weather sources are saying, I’m not going to credit or discredit any other sources. We put our own forecasts together, and are spending all our time and efforts for CNY. Other sources are looking at the “big” picture of the storm, and often tend to pay more attention to the worst conditions rather than the overall picture.

    Posted February 24th at 6:52 AM

  179. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Only 2.1” here with a lgt mist falling. The way it was coming down when I went to bed I thought I was geting alot more than that!!! Unbelievable.

    Posted February 24th at 7:05 AM

  180. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Only 1.5” here – also have that mist falling

    Posted February 24th at 7:10 AM

  181. Nick (West Winfield NY):

    i just looked at new channel 10 for Albany and they say snow mix with ice and may see some rain for the Hudson, Albany area. But they said for the Catskill, Adirondacks, and Mohawk valley in those areas are going to get heavy wet snow. But we just have to wait and see

    Posted February 24th at 7:10 AM

  182. vinny (UTICA):

    another bust!I bet the next one will be also.we just cant catch a break with these storms

    Posted February 24th at 7:11 AM

  183. vinny (utica):

    those other stations are never right,we will have sleet mixed in.its just one of those years

    Posted February 24th at 7:14 AM

  184. Rob (Whitesboro):

    11.1” at the NWS in Albany.

    Posted February 24th at 7:28 AM

  185. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    1.8” here in Westmo @ 7am.

    .23” Liquid equiv.

    CEMENT

    Posted February 24th at 7:32 AM

  186. Matt H Mount Upton:

    1 inch here. another buster for us. will thurs-fri be our turn? i think we will be luck to see 5 inches

    Posted February 24th at 7:56 AM

  187. MG(Point Rock):

    I had 3 inches that fell from sunset on. Not nearly as much as the night before.

    Posted February 24th at 8:12 AM

  188. cusefan (Deerfield):

    Ended up with 2.5” here of the wet and heavy stuff overall.

    Posted February 24th at 8:14 AM

  189. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Hmm NWS says nothing about any mixing for the next storm…guess we will see!

    Posted February 24th at 8:16 AM

  190. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Just under 3” from last nights storm number one, heavy wet snow at that. Lets get Number Two done and over with.

    Posted February 24th at 8:46 AM

  191. Randy (SUNY Cobleskill):

    From last nights storm we got 11.3 Inches and It’s all very heavy wet snow, sticking to everything.

    Posted February 24th at 8:49 AM

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