Why severe weather stays out of CNY (usually)....

Posted April 19th, 2011 by Bill Kardas. 38 comments

Cool, cloudy weather seems impossible to shake here in Central New York this time of year.  Keep in mind, spring is a transitional season.  While every once in a while we can bust into the 60s and 70s with sunshine, many more days are cool, cloudy, and wet.  Higher hilltops will continue to stay vulnerable to snow showers until May. 

Midwest severe weather

The next storm moving in will produce the risk for severe weather across the Midwest.  SPC draws a moderate risk for tornadoes, hail, and wind stretching from Eastern Oklahoma to Eastern Ohio.  By the time it reaches Central New York tomorrow the risk for severe weather goes down considerably.  Perhaps a thunderstorm tomorrow with steady rain.

We often get questions this time of year as to why the Midwest gets so much severe weather.  In order to answer that question, we need to explain what causes severe weather.  Many of us think of thunderstorms and severe weather on hot, humid afternoons.  Many of you understand that humidity and heat provide energy to create thunderstorms.  This only goes so far in explaining severe weather, because we have our fair share of hot, humid days in the summer and aren't prone to severe weather on a regular basis.

Instability explained

Thunderstorms need two things to form: instability (gasoline) and a trigger (match).  Triggers are anything that causes the air to rise: cold fronts, lake breezes, orographic lifting, convection, etc.  Upstate NY and the Midwest have plenty of triggers.  What's different is instability.  Instability describes how quickly the air can rise in the atmosphere.  Air is most unstable when we find warm, humid air near the surface AND cooler, drier air aloft.  Why? 

Air rises fastest when it's warmer than it's surrounding environment.  Warmer air near the surface that rises into colder air aloft will act like a hot air balloon and continue to rise.  Dry air cools off ~ -10°C/km while moist air cools off ~ -6°C/km.  Moist air therefore will rise faster and farther in the atmosphere compared to dry air.  Moist air rising also produces clouds and precipitation.

Rising air = updraft speed

The faster the air rises, the stronger the updraft.  The strength of the updraft is important, because that determines the strength and duration of the storm.  Hail, frequent lightning, and strong winds occur with updraft speeds over 60mph!

One of the main reasons why Central New York is less prone to severe weather is due to the lack of that dry, cool, upper air pattern.  It's usually too warm in the upper atmosphere in the summer to produce severe weather.  When it is sufficiently cool and dry in the upper atmosphere, it's usually too cool and dry at the surface.  In other words, the ingredients rarely come together.

Why in the Midwest?

The Midwest is prone to severe weather due to geography.  The Gulf of Mexico provides warm, humid air near the surface with a southerly breeze.  The Rocky Mountains provide cool, dry air aloft with an upper level westerly breeze.  The wind patterns that create this type of wind are areas of low pressure, which in turn act as that trigger to produce severe weather.  The setup of warm, humid air near the surface plus cool dry air aloft happens on a regular basis in the Midwest.  Most areas of low pressure in the spring run the risk of severe weather in this part of the country.

Tags: severe weather

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  1. JoMD (Fonda):

    Thank you AGAIN for a wonderful explanation….I really needed this as for some reason can’t grasp all the items necessary to produce severe weather….now if only you can explain why frequent lightning is NOT required when defining severe. Seems kind of illogical to me as lightning certainly is damaging!

    Posted April 19th at 10:06 AM

  2. Bill Kardas (WKTV):


    I can’t disagree with your logic. Lightning can damage property and injure or kill people just like large hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. However, I think the reason why lightning isn’t a criteria for a severe storm is because a) lightning happens in a non severe storm too, b) if there’s frequent lightning there’s a high chance the storm is already severe, and c) it’s difficult to quantify frequent lightning. Would it be based on strikes per hour, strikes per square mile, etc?

    More importantly, severe storms can be tracked and documented based on the current criteria. Storm spotters can measure hail size, estimate wind speed based on damage, or confirm a tornado touchdown. The only way to confirm lightning strikes is remotely. We would have to document storms based on remote data.

    On a side note, you could also could make the argument that a storm producing heavy rainfall could be severe. Heavy rain causes traffic accidents and flooding. England’s definition of severe includes precipitation.

    Posted April 19th at 10:22 AM

  3. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    To clarify my last note, England calls a storm that produces heavy rainfall a “severe weather warning”...their version of a severe thunderstorm warning is similar to ours (hail, wind, and/or tornado)

    Posted April 19th at 10:23 AM

  4. Tim (Salisbury):

    40 Degrees for a High. I still have some big patches of old snowpack left. I guess this “spring” 40 is the new 60. LOL!

    Posted April 19th at 5:17 PM

  5. Cindy (Ilion):

    I can;t believe how miserable this weather is, it is just so depressing.This constant day after day after day of cloudy, rain and cold is just ridiculous. Is there any break coming what so ever? This is just the worst I can remember!

    Posted April 19th at 8:46 PM

  6. Rob (Whitesboro):

    What a crazy spring time storm to the west. Probably will see over 1000 severe reports again. Been getting thundersnow in Oskosh WI for the last 6hrs.

    Posted April 19th at 10:35 PM

  7. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Lots of Warnings in Michigan with temps in the 30’s. That’s pretty rare.

    Posted April 19th at 11:01 PM

  8. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    35 degrees this morning, cloudy with some patches of fog, .3” of rain.

    Posted April 20th at 5:06 AM

  9. Denys (East Winfield):

    34 degrees with a little wind. It rained because the ground is wet….I didn’t hear a thing if we had a thunderstorm! No precip right now.

    Posted April 20th at 5:42 AM

  10. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    More storms heading to the north of the valley this morning. Small hail, heavy rain, frequent lightning reported in Westdale (NW Oneida County). Nothing severe at this time.

    As we see, you can have thunderstorms on cold days. The setup is called elevated convection. I’ll have a writeup on this later this morning.

    Posted April 20th at 6:21 AM

  11. Denys (East Winfield):

    It’s very foggy here this morning. Just wanted to add that.

    Posted April 20th at 6:22 AM

  12. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The current environment is unstable enough to maintain these storms. Elevated CAPE is about the same as it was 3 hours ago, when those storms rolled through Utica.

    Posted April 20th at 6:26 AM

  13. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Reports of small hail in Westdale and Remsen.

    Posted April 20th at 7:24 AM

  14. Robert (Rome):

    Woke up to some thunder and lightning at 7:25AM. We had some hail a little larger than pea size in Rome

    Posted April 20th at 7:35 AM

  15. Bill Kardas (WKTV):





    Posted April 20th at 7:39 AM

  16. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    gettin pretty dark here

    Posted April 20th at 7:41 AM

  17. Winter (Forestport):

    37°...33° was the overnite lo temp…a lot of thunder earlier…the wind is driving the rain…it was wild earlier…

    Posted April 20th at 7:46 AM

  18. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    We got some small size hail along with some rain here a couple of minutes ago. About 1/4” size.
    Temp right now is…..40*

    Posted April 20th at 7:51 AM

  19. Rob (Whitesboro):

    That was some serious rain that just moved through. Didn’t here any thunder though.

    Posted April 20th at 7:54 AM

  20. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

    41 degrees. Lots of thunder during the night. .51” in the bucket.

    Posted April 20th at 7:58 AM

  21. Bill Kardas (WKTV):



    Posted April 20th at 8:17 AM

  22. Tim (Salisbury):

    This weather is like Gas prices in reverse, it takes forever to “warm” up . A week of cold crappy weather,gradually getting to normal for a day,or lately for a few hours. Then a strong cold front crashes in ,plummeting Temps & conditions immediately. Then we start the same miserable cycle again.

    Posted April 20th at 8:26 AM

  23. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Tim, I think we all get your point. It’s been a cool spring. Can we be a bit more positive about it? Haven’t seen many bugs lately have you?

    All models point to a major warmup next week (sustained 60s and 70s). We’re obviously skeptical about it but it is certainly overdue.

    Posted April 20th at 8:37 AM

  24. Tim (Salisbury):

    34 degrees here. Wet,cold, & sloppy.

    Posted April 20th at 8:39 AM

  25. Tim (Salisbury):

    Bill,hard to do that when the “trend is your friend” Also for retired people like myself this causes financial hardship too. It extends the heating season even longer in a long winter. So no ,kind of hard to put a “smiley face” on when we have been dealing since october,& possibly only have 4 months (maybe) of good weather ahead!

    Posted April 20th at 8:48 AM

  26. Gordon (Northwestern):

    1.21” of rain since late yesterday afternoon. Heard a lot of thunder last night 3 different times. current temp is 39.5 @ 9 AM.

    Posted April 20th at 9:01 AM

  27. Jill Reale (Utica):

    SPC has us under slight risk for severe weather today, with the main concern being wind. The next round of showers/storms will arrive with the cold front this afternoon.


    I think what Bill was trying to say is that we know it has been a cooler Spring but it isnt necessary to keep commenting about it in that manner. This weather will help us appreciate summer even more.

    Posted April 20th at 9:08 AM

  28. Tim (Salisbury):

    Cooler? No it has been cold period!

    Posted April 20th at 9:31 AM

  29. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Here is where we stand for April (if it ended yesterday)

    2011 Avg High Tem: 53°
    Average High Temp: 54.1°

    2011 Avg Low Temp: 34.5°
    Average Low Temp: 35.5°

    2011 Avg Temp: 43.8°
    Average Temp: 44.8°

    Posted April 20th at 9:42 AM

  30. Jill Reale (Utica):

    For those who think this weather isnt great, take a look back on April 16, 2007:

    Click here for snowfall map

    Posted April 20th at 10:06 AM

  31. Mel (Westernville):

    As Gordon said we had thunder & lightning off and on all night after around 2:30 I believe. Even heard some hail hitting the roof.

    Posted April 20th at 10:42 AM

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