Buckle Up!

Posted October 24th, 2008 by Matt Lanza. 108 comments

First off, regarding the blog issues. It seems very sporadic. Some of you are having no trouble. Others can't get anything done. If you have been trying today to no avail, give it one more try this weekend. I would ask that those that are still having issues just be patient. Let me know via email what is happening, what, if any error messages you receive, and I will pass those on to the folks at Quadsimia. Problems may not be corrected until Monday, but at least we'll have a leg up on them. Thanks for understanding!

Forecasting Nightmare

So this forecast is a nightmare for us right now. We have all kinds of issues ongoing. I'll do my best to break them down for you here.

Saturday Rain/Wind/Thunder

Rain should move into the area by about 4-6 AM. There will be a few hours of steady rain here and then we should see it either become more sporadic or stop by Noon. I wouldn't be shocked to see a few breaks of sun either. Then, the main event. A strong front is going to plow through here. You can see our Microcast's depiction of the front at 7 PM here (click to enlarge it). What I am suspecting occurs is that we will have a nasty line of rain, with the potential for embedded thunder. It will rain quite heavily underneath this band. If any thunderstorms do get going, they may produce some pretty strong wind gusts as well. More on that in a second. That rain will be out of here by about 8 PM or so. I think that while our Microcast is depicting the frontal passage to be around 7 PM, it may occur a couple hours earlier than that. Either way, you will want to probably not be outside when this comes through, as it will be pretty unpleasant weather!

When all is said and done, flooding won't be an issue we don't think, other than perhaps some occasional problems in areas of poor drainage that "flood when it drizzles"  (as the joke would go). But, there is a lot of potential with this system in terms of getting good rainfall amounts. In fact, you can see to the right what our Microcast is saying in terms of total rainfall. Anywhere from 1-2.50" is possible if you trust Microcast. I think some of these amounts may be overdone, but a solid 0.75"-1.50" seems likely, with isolated higher amounts. This will be more of a beneficial rain than anything.

The third and final conundrum for us tomorrow is with wind. And this may be the most challenging forecast aspect. The problem is, a lot of times in these sort of setups, the strong winds are all over on the models, but never make it down to the surface. The models tomorrow are advertising winds of 50 mph at 1,000 feet and 70 mph at 2,000 feet. If you live at or above 1,500 feet, your wind will likely be howling tomorrow afternoon for about 4-6 hours. You can see to the right what our Microcast is forecasting in terms of wind speeds tomorrow afternoon. Sustained winds in the Mohawk Valley and in most valleys (except a few north to south oriented valleys in Otsego County) will likely be 15-25 mph, with gusts in excess of 30 mph possible. Hilltops will be sustained at 20-30 mph for awhile tomorrow, with peak gusts of 40-50 mph possible. I wouldn't rule out a 60 mph wind gust either. You get the idea....windy!

So that's where we stand regarding tomorrow.

Sunday

So we'll get a break on Saturday night as rapid drying and clearing builds in. It will turn a little colder aloft, but nothing significant. Winds will diminish rapidly after sunset as well. Into Sunday, we'll wake up to sunshine. Sunday morning and afternoon will be gorgeous, with highs in the mid or upper 50s. It looks fantastic. But, mid to late afternoon Sunday will feature thickening clouds. The cold front we initially thought would come through Monday morning has sped up 12-15 hours. This front will plow through Sunday evening and bring with it a period of rain and perhaps a rumble of thunder with gusty winds...again.

Then, Sunday night, let the fun begin. Unfortunately (or fortunately), this area will not be reaping the benefits of Lake Ontario initially. Here's why. Check out this image below:

If you look at the bottom left panel of the NAM, valid Sunday night, you can see very potent southwesterly flow. This means all the fun is up on the southwest Tug Hill (possible double band off Ontario), with the main band being up toward Watertown. More interestingly, off Lake Erie, you can see the flow lined up to clock Buffalo. So for southwest Lewis County and maybe parts of northwestern Oneida County, we're talking a possible mix of rain and snow showers Sunday night. Will there be accumulating snow? Somewhere, but probably not anywhere in our direct or fringe viewing area.

Next Week

Alright, so if we can't win Sunday night, what about next week? Well, a third cold front is going to plow through here Monday, potentially again bringing a period of rain and thunderstorms. The progression of events is fascinating. You can see on the chart what our 850 mb temperatures are (5,000 feet up) for six of the next seven mornings, as forecasted by the GFS model.

GFS Forecasted 850mb Temperatures, 8 AM
Day Temperature
Sunday 0.5°C
Monday -6°C
Tuesday -6°C
Wednesday -9°C
Thursday -9°C
Friday +4.5°C

 

So you can see how it's a natural progression downward heading into Tuesday. Winds should become more westerly Monday evening, which should lead to a mix of lake effect rain and snow showers. Then things go haywire heading into Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and beyond. I see the possibility of three scenarios right now. Let me explain these possibilities.

Scenario 1

The first scenario is the one that the GFS is advertising. This would suggest northwest flow from Tuesday afternoon into Thursday morning, with 850 mb temperatures of -8 to -10°C. This would lead to lake effect snow showers and some accumulating snow for just about everyone south and west of Utica. I can't really see this scenario producing much snow for Utica proper, but towns in southern Oneida, Madison, Chenango and Otsego Counties would see some in this situation. A surge of high pressure would occur Thursday, kicking our temperatures way back up above freezing by Halloween and leaving potentially 45-50 degree temperatures for the trick or treaters and clear skies...it would also lead to a nice weekend.

Scenario 2

The second scenario is one that the European model is currently advertising. After the initial shot of cold Monday, an area of low pressure would develop along the front east of our area (off the coast of New Jersey). It would lift north or NNW Monday night and Tuesday, explode into a nor'easter and wrap back a potentially massive snow event for October for the higher terrain of CNY. The valleys would be warm enough for a mix of snow and rain. A brief period of lake effect would occur Wednesday behind it, followed by a warm up Thursday (highs near 50) and then another shot of rather potent cold would follow on Halloween, with lake effect snow possible into trick or treat time, followed by a cool/dry weekend.

Scenario 3

The third scenario is sort of a hybrid of the first two. This one is favored by the Canadian model. It's basically turning us very cold Tuesday and Wednesday with lake effect. It never develops a nor'easter. Instead, it warms us up considerably into Thursday. It would then drive a shot of cold and lake effect into the region by Halloween.

WKTV Solution

Well, I'm taking my life into my own hands with the forecast tonight. But that's how it is. The GFS and its ensembles were in great agreement with one another. That suggests gorgeous weather for Halloween. And even more interestingly, it had absolutely NO sign whatsoever of any secondary shot of cold. Usually when I see the GFS and its ensembles in good agreement, I can forecast with high confidence. However, the fact that the Canadian AND Euro were in great agreement on the likelihood of a secondary shot of cold by Halloween is of big concern to me. For now, I stuck with the GFS because if there's this much confidence, it's tough to ignore. There also has been strong agreement that a significant warm up would occur behind this midweek cooldown. Whereas, the Euro and Canadian may be falsely picking up on this and had no real sign of this yesterday. So for now, Halloween is mild and pleasant in my eyes.

The biggest question left is regarding the possible nor'easter. That's a scenario that I have very low confidence in at this time, and we will need to watch that closely. Stay tuned!!!

Tags: snow, rain, lake effect, wind, winter, cold

Add a Comment

Comments

  1. becky (WEst Leyden:

    test

    Posted October 24th at 10:55 PM

  2. Matt (Utica):

    Liking the new format, the thunderstorms are interesting… snow, storms, snow storms lol i wish mother nature would make up her mind.

    Posted October 24th at 11:21 PM

  3. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    It seems as though the best chance for snow would be the Nor‘easter.

    To bad the winds can‘t line up from the west.

    Posted October 24th at 11:22 PM

  4. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    It seems as though the best chance for snow would be the Nor‘easter.

    To bad the winds can‘t line up from the west.

    Posted October 24th at 11:23 PM

  5. Teresa (Utica):

    Can‘t wait for the blog to be hummin’ again!!
    I really enjoyed it last winter…..buckle up !! I hear it‘s supposed to be a pretty wild ride this year !!

    Posted October 24th at 11:28 PM

  6. Teresa (Utica):

    Can‘t wait for the blog to be hummin’ again!!
    I really enjoyed it last winter…..buckle up !! I hear it‘s supposed to be a pretty wild ride this year !!

    Posted October 24th at 11:28 PM

  7. Teresa:

    eww….sorry. This new format is a bit tricky !

    Posted October 24th at 11:30 PM

  8. Becky (West Leyden):

    Matt (utica): Its not unusual for the weather to be all over the place this time of year

    Posted October 24th at 11:50 PM

  9. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    test

    Posted October 24th at 11:57 PM

  10. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    test

    Posted October 24th at 11:57 PM

  11. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Fnally able to post again something has been wrong here for a couple months but I am able to post now. I love the new format and will try to register again tommorow. I look forward to be able to report and comment here again. Sorry for the double post above.

    Posted October 25th at 12:03 AM

  12. Becky (West Leyden):

    This is going to be a fairly intense cold front. I won’t be at all surprised to see a few gust of 60 or even 60+ in elevations over 1800 feet, with the air aloft being a little unstable I guess some of us could see a few embedded thunderstorms. ...Matt what are your thoughts on the possible 4-5 day warm-up at end of October into the first week of November

    Posted October 25th at 12:26 AM

  13. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    Becky: Part of it is going to be squashed. It looks like the 00Z GFS has brought the Euro/Canadian idea of cold for Halloween back into the picture. This would at least limit the duration of any substantial warm up. Though, it looks like the first few days of November could be warmer than normal.

    Posted October 25th at 1:27 AM

  14. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    testing

    Posted October 25th at 1:49 AM

  15. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Hey Matt, i‘m back up and finally able to post again!!!!

    Posted October 25th at 2:17 AM

  16. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Wind Advisories have been issued for Herkimer and Lewis Counties. As Matt said last night, it is going to get very windy today (40-50mph gusts) so if you have any Halloween decorations outside, I would buckle them down or bring them inside. Heavy rain is going to move into the region with the hour.

    Posted October 25th at 6:31 AM

  17. Jules (Ilion):

    Test

    Posted October 25th at 7:41 AM

  18. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

    Looks like a very tricky forecast. Rain had started here and picking up in intensity, plus getting a tad breezy.

    Posted October 25th at 7:55 AM

  19. Donna (in the Valley):

    testing…

    Posted October 25th at 8:33 AM

  20. Donna (in the Valley):

    I like this new blog.

    I like Scenario #1 as the snow would be West of the city. Keep all the snow up North in Lewis County this winter. :)

    Raining lightly here in the Valley now 8:40 am with a slight breeze.

    Posted October 25th at 8:37 AM

  21. Andy (Forestport):

    this may end up a wild winter…

    Posted October 25th at 8:55 AM

  22. Andy (Forestport):

    hopefully i can keep this working..

    Posted October 25th at 8:58 AM

  23. Karen (Westmoreland):

    Just a test…..

    Posted October 25th at 9:38 AM

  24. WINTER (FORESTPORT):

    The new blog format is great.

    Posted October 25th at 9:51 AM

  25. mommyof3boys (ilion):

    goodmorning all i hope we do get some snow i also really liek the new format i think its a great thing now to ilion weather right now we are at 50 degrees with a little wind and no rain at this time it was raining a little earler but since stoped for the time being i know it will start up again just a matter oh when i will post again later if anything happens

    Posted October 25th at 11:35 AM

  26. bets (west leyden):

    pouring rain here very damp 51*degrees winds are starting to pick up ,Whats in store for us in the north country?Should i get the candles ready?

    Posted October 25th at 1:05 PM

  27. Matt S. (Deerfield):

    I hate this rain! Whats in store for tomorrow between 8AM and 1PM as I am going to be working outside on a truck tomorrow.

    Posted October 25th at 3:00 PM

  28. mommyof3boys (ilion):

    ok so its now raining here in ilion it is 52 degrees out right now with moderate to heavy rain at time..i really wanted to take my boys to the zoo tonite but i guess i am not now with all this rain… i guess next year we will have to go twice since we could not go this year

    Posted October 25th at 3:30 PM

  29. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Where is the front actually located?

    Posted October 25th at 3:48 PM

  30. GAIL:

    WHERE IS THE WIND THEY PREDICTED

    Posted October 25th at 4:37 PM

  31. GAIL:

    WHERE IS THE WIND THEY PREDICTED

    Posted October 25th at 4:37 PM

  32. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    Gail: I was getting some good winds here.

    Posted October 25th at 4:53 PM

  33. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

    WOW, I saw on Weatherundeground some cells moving at 70-90 knots. Wind here soon I think.

    Posted October 25th at 5:06 PM

  34. Laura (Paris Hill):

    Rainfall at 1.48 inches for today. Fairly impressive! Had some on and off wind gusts today around 20 MPH.

    Posted October 25th at 5:40 PM

  35. Laura (Paris Hill):

    Wow, now up to 1.87 inches of rain for today! It‘s really coming down. Temp down to 50 and winds are around 10 MPH.

    Posted October 25th at 6:00 PM

  36. Becky (West Leyden):

    Winds have shifted to the WNW......right now they are 18 mph. our highest gust was 47 mph at 3:24 pm.

    Posted October 25th at 6:28 PM

  37. Ann (Deerfield/Poland area):

    Our rain gauge shows 1.16 inches of rain since this morning. It‘s been quite windy up here all day long.

    Posted October 25th at 7:08 PM

  38. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Minor flooding was occuring on Route 5 in Little Falls at 6:45p.m. Water was 4 or five inches deep on west main street in one spot.

    Posted October 25th at 7:33 PM

  39. asa bavers:

    wind have ccalm down here in herkimer rain heavy all day until 735 pm temp have drop a little

    Posted October 25th at 7:35 PM

  40. WINTER (Forestport):

    53 degrees – The rain and wind has just let up. 7:45 PM

    Posted October 25th at 7:44 PM

  41. Laura (Paris Hill):

    Things seem to be calming down for now. Rain gauge is now at 2.35 inches! Down to 48 degrees.

    Posted October 25th at 7:54 PM

  42. wilma:

    supposedly some flooding in newport at steuben road / strumlock road.

    Posted October 25th at 8:42 PM

  43. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Flood Advisory still in effect for Herkimer County untill 12:15 AM.There have also been reports of flooding in Frankfort as well.Rome ended up with 1.6” officially .Looks like southern New England and New Jersey got hit worst by the winds.Lots of reports of trees down around those areas.

    Posted October 25th at 9:36 PM

  44. Rob (Whitesboro):

    State Rte 5 and 233 in Kirkland is flooded in both lanes as well.

    Posted October 25th at 9:47 PM

  45. Steve:

    Regarding the tuesday wednesday event, its definitely looking like the euro will win out. The gfs and its ensembles have been trending west along with the nam. It could be quite exciting come midweek.

    Posted October 25th at 10:36 PM

  46. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah the 00Z NAM was quite impressive.It‘s a miss for us but at least it‘s trending this way.This would bring significant snows to the Green and White Mountains.It also intensifies the storm big time as it moves into Canada bringing much colder air than its previous run.

    Posted October 25th at 10:56 PM

  47. Matt(Marcy):

    The nexrad GFS suggests that there is a widespread snow lasting from late tuesday afternoon to around mid thursday afternoon

    Posted October 25th at 11:01 PM

  48. Stacy R (Stratford):

    So according to Matt Lanza, we will NOT be seeing any significant snow next week? What a bummer! Seems everytime we get ‘excited’ over the BIG events, they fizzle out. Now what will we have to talk about?

    Posted October 25th at 11:13 PM

  49. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    Just checked up on stuff after watching my Phillies pull out a thriller. Stacy: Never said that! We still may see significant snow. At least parts of the area may. The 00Z GFS still has no sign of a nor‘easter for midweek….it‘s all lake effect. The Euro may be on its own now in this department. So I‘m still against the nor‘easter, but it definitely can‘t be written off entirely.

    Posted October 26th at 2:20 AM

  50. John (Ohio):

    2.09” storm total here

    Posted October 26th at 7:23 AM

  51. gail:

    anything new on next week with snow

    Posted October 26th at 1:13 PM

  52. Rob (Whitesboro):

    As far as the nor‘easter goes…it‘s going to be more of a New England storm with the potential for several inches in the A‘dks.This is definitely going to set the stage for a decent LES event starting late Tuesday.I think the ground will be white in many places come Thursday AM.

    Posted October 26th at 3:06 PM

  53. Stevo (Rome):

    well id like to see that. bring on the snow!

    Posted October 26th at 3:49 PM

  54. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    From all I‘ve seen all the LES will be up in the Watertown area. A dusting would be great though.

    Posted October 26th at 3:58 PM

  55. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Mike it will initially.The main event for LES will start late Tuesday night though on a mean 300 flow.Anybody that‘s familiar with the NAM model check it out.It‘s dumping some serious snow in the North country.These models better come into agreement soon…the storm isn‘t that far away.

    Posted October 26th at 4:56 PM

  56. Mike M(Oswego):

    the 18z NAM has shifted even further west, this is deffinetly getting intersting…

    Posted October 26th at 5:00 PM

  57. becca:

    My husband will be thrilled because he is a snowmobiler…

    Posted October 26th at 5:11 PM

  58. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    Matt Lanza: Can we have a crash course on Bufkit for an entry?

    Everyone else: From my ventures into Bufkit (and Bufget not getting all the stuff downloaded), I‘m weary of shear being a limiting factor. Winds seem to be all over the place the farther up you get.

    The 18z NAM has a beautiful westerly wind Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for some nice LES. Looks like it‘ll be just south of me though. :(

    Posted October 26th at 5:13 PM

  59. Rob (Whitesboro):

    T-Storms are enter WNY at this time.Some of these cells are severe with gusty winds and possible hail.

    Posted October 26th at 6:50 PM

  60. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Could be some gusty winds coming into Oswego county.Shear values are very impressive in CNY.

    Posted October 26th at 7:02 PM

  61. Barb (Lee Center):

    We are in WNY right now…getting hammered with severe thunderstorms….temp has dropped considerably. The wind is also howling—almost thought we were having a tornado (that would have been interesting!). Are we going to have LES in this area? We are returning on Thursday to CNY.

    Posted October 26th at 7:25 PM

  62. Becky (West Leyden):

    Have a little thunder to my west however, they are losing there punch. Wherever it the LES sets up should be significant. maybe 1-2 feet worth, With the amount of leaves still on the trees, it could end up like the Buffalo LES event did a few years back.

    Posted October 26th at 7:33 PM

  63. Barb (Lee Center):

    Great…maybe we won‘t get home. We grew up here, but I have found there is more snow and it gets a LOT colder in CNY than WNY. Maybe we will stay and not go home!!! Gotta love Buffalo (wish we beat the Dolphins…we have next week!!!).

    Posted October 26th at 7:46 PM

  64. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Barb winds are gusting at 40 mph in BUF right now.Several trees down north of the city from 60mph winds.

    Posted October 26th at 7:56 PM

  65. Becky (West Leyden):

    Barb: Bills overall are doing good their 5-2 for the season
    As for the LES It‘s hard to nail it down. I thinks someone will get quite a bit…. I‘m just not sure who…..right now I feel it will be parts of Oswego, Lewis, and Jefferson counties

    Posted October 26th at 8:02 PM

  66. Wayne (Marcy):

    I‘m actually in WNY as well right now… WInd was very strong here in Niagara County and the rian came down very hard as well for a bit. All‘s calm now but it certainly was dicey for a while :)

    Posted October 26th at 8:02 PM

  67. Matt(Marcy):

    can someone tell me if we‘re looking at snow,rain a mix, lots of lake effect, a nor‘easter or just plain rain because I‘m very confused

    Posted October 26th at 10:17 PM

  68. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Matt all global models are showing the nor‘easter hitting New England.The 00Z NAM just hit the hilltops of CNY very hard with heavy snow.It‘s just one of those instances where everybody is puzzled.We‘ll see what the GFS says in an hour.

    Posted October 26th at 10:31 PM

  69. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Hey Mike M…What did you think of that run?Is that crazy or what!! I don‘t know if we should believe it or not.Just the LES alone is significant!

    Posted October 26th at 10:56 PM

  70. mike m(oswego):

    Rob, yes the 00z NAM hits areas along and east of 81 with very heavy snow(esp higher elevations). if this were to verify it would be an epic early season snowfall across Central and eastern NY. hope the gfs follows suit, at least somewhat.

    Posted October 26th at 11:16 PM

  71. Rob (Whitesboro):

    The SREFS arn‘t showing any signs of this.The parallel is showing a more reasonable scenerio.It‘s a major outliar but we‘ll see.

    Posted October 26th at 11:42 PM

  72. Michael (Dolgeville):

    HPC guiadance has us at a 10% chance of reaching or exceeding 4 inches of snow. Yesterday we weren‘t even included in that probability. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

    Posted October 26th at 11:47 PM

  73. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Well the GFS continues its trend towards us.It drops a few inches of snow on us at least followed by perfect 290 flow on Wednesday.The NAM is just totally unbelievable.It drops about 3.5” of precip on Utica!

    Posted October 27th at 12:07 AM

  74. Rob (Whitesboro):

    The Canadian is trending back now as well giving us several inches of snow.6Z runs are going to be very important tonight.This could start unfolding as early as late tomorrow night.If they trend further ESE we could wake up to a Winter Storm Watch in the morning.

    Posted October 27th at 1:06 AM

  75. Michael (Dolgeville):

    As is always the case here in CNY, anything is possible. Just when you think you can write a storm off, it pops up again. If this trend continues, some snow would be a certainty! The only thing is, I think ground temperatures are still too warm to support any significant amount unless it falls heavilly. Also surface temps could be too warm to support snow in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Hope I am wrong though!

    Posted October 27th at 1:33 AM

  76. Bill Kardas:

    New model runs continue to show a high impact rain/snow event here for Tuesday. Despite low thickness values and heavy precipitation, my experience says that it‘s going to be a challenge to see any snowflakes in the lower elevations during the day. In the higher elevations (1500’+) this may not be the case. A heavy, wet snow is possible in the Adirondacks if all goes as planned tomorrow.

    Tomorrow night we‘ll switch over to snow, even in the valley, as colder air works in and lake effect starts to take over. I‘m cautious about throwing numbers out yet because our models haven‘t been consistent lately. While it looks great right now for some accumulations, that could change pretty quickly. By the way, you/your kids are having school on Wednesday morning so don‘t ask :)

    Posted October 27th at 4:43 AM

  77. Brad (Oneonta):

    Anything to the south in Otsego?

    Posted October 27th at 6:27 AM

  78. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    Hopefully by tomorrow we‘ll get some sort of consistency going within the models. Right now it seems as though we have the same number of possibilities as Saturday

    Posted October 27th at 6:43 AM

  79. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Wow, the models are surely throwing out a LOT of precip!!! There is also a very sharp cutoff line as well, looks like someone in the viewing area is going to be happy (or sad depending) come Wednesday and Thursday!

    Posted October 27th at 7:49 AM

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