October Snow...Now What?

Posted October 29th, 2008 by Matt Lanza. 48 comments

Just a quick refresher entry as lake effect continues. You can click to see our snowfall forecast.

Winter storm snow totals can be found by clicking here.

This is going to be very brief. But, Jill Reale did some number crunching tonight looking back at other Octobers that saw 0.5" or more of snow in Utica. The results really surprised us.

October saw 0.5" or more of snow in: 1955, 1960, 1976, 1979, 1987, 1988, 1992, 1993, and 1997. The seasonal snowfall totals of those years looked like this:
 

Season Snowfall
55-56 103.4"
60-61 66.7"
76-77 131.1"
79-80 53.4"
87-88 67.0"
88-89 57.4"
92-93 112.5"
93-94 168.0"
97-98 105.6"

For those of you scoring at home, that is three above normal winters, two near normal winter, and four below (well below) normal winters. So the tendancy is toward the extreme on one side of the coin or the other. So that doesn't help too much, but...check this out. We broke it down by month. We wanted to see if the trend was for the winter to hit harder early or late.

November had six below normal months and three above normal months.

December had six below normal months and two above normals months...and one normal month

January had six below normal months and three above normal months.

February had two below normal months and seven above normal months.

March had three below normal months, five above normal months and one normal month.

Well that is interesting! There is a strong signal, if you trust this data, that this would be a late hitting winter, rather than an early one, which has been what my thought process has been for two months now. Is this legitimate? Maybe...maybe not. But it's something else to consider. Just thought you may find that interesting. Thanks to Jill for crunching those numbers.

The photo is credited to a member of the Eastern US Weather forums who happened to be chasing the snow in Old Forge...thanks for that!

Tags: snow, winter, climatology, October, statistics

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Comments

  1. Matt (Holland Patent):

    Did anyone get the video from Dave being on the Weather Channel. I have quite a few with tatiana anderson from the weather channel.

    Posted October 29th at 9:29 PM

  2. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Just want to give a heads up to anyone traveling this morning that area roads are covered in black ice. Any untreated surfaces are very slick. Use EXTREME caution!!!

    Posted October 30th at 2:13 AM

  3. Mike S:

    New software and they come right out to the front page.

    In weather news, it looks like we‘ll be going through a quiet stretch here for a bit. GFS ensembles have maybe another storm coming. Sad part is only one is favorable for snow, a couple are putting us on the southern side, and more don‘t even have a related storm.

    Posted October 30th at 8:40 AM

  4. Mel (Westernville):

    Since there are a lot of new users on this winter, here is a link from the CoCORaHS website on how to measure snow:

    Click Here

    They are also going to be having a training session for new observers on Nov 19th in Syracuse – if anyone is interested I can forward that e-mail on the them.

    Posted October 30th at 10:16 AM

  5. Andy (Forestport):

    There seems to be a lot of cold air building in canada, more than the last to years, I wonder what the cold air situation was the winters mentioned above.

    Posted October 30th at 11:39 AM

  6. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    So I took a trip today to Paris Hill from Utica…

    The Valley floor (400’) has zip. About 100’ above the valley floor, the snow stuck…partially helped by the more persistent lake band in that area last night. At about 600’, lake effect helped to deposit about 2”, give or take. 800’ up looked to be a solid 3-4”, which seemed to persist to about 1000’. I would eyeball approximately 6-10” by 1,200’, with 10-16”+ where I ended up at 1,500’. I‘ll try and post some shots on YouNews later.

    Posted October 30th at 1:18 PM

  7. Matt Lanza:

    I posted my shots on Flickr for now…so if anyone‘s interested, click here

    Posted October 30th at 1:57 PM

  8. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    Matt: It‘s marked as “Private Page.”

    Posted October 30th at 2:21 PM

  9. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    Well, never mind then! I‘ll work on getting that fixed.

    Posted October 30th at 2:49 PM

  10. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

    Boy Matt, a “trip” to Paris Hill? LOL

    I‘ve heard Unadilla Forks is pretty this time of year too.

    Posted October 30th at 2:58 PM

  11. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    Tony: Haha…you forget sometimes how much different it gets 10 miles outside the Valley.

    Posted October 30th at 3:27 PM

  12. Gary W:

    Matt: I noticed snowfall differences right here in the city. My house on Gibson Rd.(right off the Parkway by St .Basil‘s Church) had about 1.5 inches this morning…I drove to my property on Lansing St. and there was nothing at all. Very interesting.

    Posted October 30th at 4:12 PM

  13. Becky (West Leyden):

    Matt: Looks like your prediction of winter starting late…... is spot on….... from what I‘m seeing….... looking out a few weeks, looks like our next chance for even a Possibility for snow; will be a cold front that slices through around November 8th. However this system doesn’t look like a persistent cold maker. The GFS is hinting at another warm up the week of November 10th

    Posted October 30th at 5:14 PM

  14. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    Becky: I‘m interested to see if this is a bookend winter, with a rough start and a rough finish. More on that again soon. Actually, keep an eye on late next week/weekend….Euro hinting at a potent storm with similar characteristics to this past one.

    Gary: I think that was primarily because of a lake effect snow band last night. If you drive on the Arterial…there was no snow on the ground at the first traffic light, but a solid coating, if not more at the last one (heading toward New Hartford). The lake band looks to have stayed in place for awhile in that area, but not as you got closer to Downtown/North Utica. I found that to be an awesome indication of how tricky this area can be.

    Posted October 30th at 6:15 PM

  15. Laura (Paris Hill):

    Matt: Glad you came up to the Hill for a visit! I, too, am always amazed by the difference from hilltop to valley. Sometimes we feel it is a different world up here. BTW, next visit stop by and we will make you hot chocolate, lol!

    Posted October 30th at 8:42 PM

  16. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I did some snow chasing today myself.Went all through the hills in Marcy and there was still a solid 3-5” on the ground.Snowpack is gone here but temp is still falling pretty fast.Down to 28 degrees.

    Posted October 30th at 9:16 PM

  17. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    Laura: Thanks! :)

    Rob…cold night tonight. Saturday night should be even more interesting.

    Posted October 30th at 9:52 PM

  18. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    Hey, those Flickr photos are now working…for some reason I default flagged them as potentially inappropriate…woops. The link should be all fixed now….and nothing is inappropriate!

    Posted October 30th at 10:17 PM

  19. Becky (West Leyden):

    Matt: Great pictures… I especially liked the one called birds

    Posted October 30th at 11:37 PM

  20. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

    Nice pictures Matt!

    Posted October 31st at 9:05 AM

  21. Ernest(Camp):

    I love all this sunny weather. i am so happy about getting candy too!

    Posted October 31st at 5:03 PM

  22. Sarah:

    What a nice change from earlier this week…could not be more perfect if it tried! Happy Halloween everyone!

    Posted October 31st at 5:14 PM

  23. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    October finishes 1.2 degrees below normal, with more rain than normal. Not bad.

    Posted October 31st at 9:20 PM

  24. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    Brief new entry up!

    Posted October 31st at 9:40 PM

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