Election Day in CNY

Posted November 3rd, 2008 by Matt Lanza. 28 comments

Election Day is upon us, and everyone is probably sick of hearing about it, but it is an important day, and I hope everyone goes out to vote. We have a policy to leave politics out of things here in the blog, but we'll make an exception tonight...but of course, with a twist. I did some research tonight to see what we could find out about Election Day, weather and if it means anything at all.

There's no secret...weather is a major factor in voter turnout (or at least unofficially it is). Bad weather can keep some voters home. Some claim it can help one party or the other, but regardless of who...it's an important factor. Fortunately tomorrow, the vast majority of the U.S. will have fair weather (see the image). Of note, in the Pacific Northwest (the yellow section), Washington and Oregon only do mail-in ballots, so we can ignore that for the most part, as weather would not impact their votes tomorrow. What is very interesting is the forecast in Eastern Virginia and North Carolina, two battleground states. Will the rain impact voter turnout there? Maybe, maybe not, but it will be interesting to see.

So is there any conclusion to be made in New York regarding weather and voting? Going in, I didn't think there was, but for fun, I took just  data from Utica. To do this more scientifically, you'd have to take information from Central Park in NYC to really draw conclusions. You'd also need to have a voter turnout number for NY which we do not have. But anyway, I went back to 1892's presidential election and took what I could find between then and now for Election Days. Here's the table of info! Those that are bold years are races that saw a < 5% margin between the top candidates.

Year High Precip Snow NY US
1892 44 0.50" N/A D R
1928 56 None None R R
1932 57 None None D D
1940 64 None None D D
1944 41 Trace Trace? D D
1948 52/62 None None R D
1952 42 Trace Trace R R
1956 61 None None R R
1960 43 None None D D
1964 65 None None D D
1968 54 None None D R
1972 56 0.06" None R R
1976 45 Trace Trace? D D
1980 57 0.05" None R R
1984 47 0.11" Trace R R
1988 44 0.38" None D R
1992 51 0.37" None D D
1996 52 Trace None D D
2000 52 None None D R
2004 48 0.31" None D R

We had 20 elections to sample. Republicans won New York seven times (35%) and Democrats 13 times (65%).

The average high on Election Day is 48-51 degrees. Interestingly, Presidential Election Days in the last 100+ years have seen 7 below normal days and 11 above normal ones with a couple normal ones thrown in. Of the tight presidential races, three were below normal, one was normal and four were above normal. Republicans won 3/4 of the above normal days.

Of the below normal days, Democrats won five elections, Republicans won two.

Of the above normal days, Republicans won five times and Democrats won six times.

There were 11 "bad weather" days in this sample (Bad weather being a trace of precipitation or more...). Democrats won 7 of those elections. Republicans won 4. If you eliminate the days that saw only a "trace" of precipitation, you get seven options. Republicans won 3, and Democrats won 4 elections.

Alright, so what can we conclude here? Absolutely nothing. There is no correlation between CNY weather and the outcome of the presidential election in New York or otherwise.

Now for some hard numbers. The average high temperature on the Election Days (for president) that we have data for is 51.6 degrees, or on the high end of normal. This year will contribute to bringing that number up. If our forecast high of 61 degrees comes to fruition, Election Day for a president will average 52 degrees in CNY. Measureable snow is unlikely on Election Day, which can only fall between November 2nd and November 8th. The highest single day total for snowfall in that stretch of time is 6.0" on November 6, 1973.

So that's that. Looking at our weather, well a tranquil week appears to be ahead. I see a brief cooldown early next week, but nothing significant. Then, there are signs another warm up could build in by later next week. I'm aiming for November 15-20 as our transitional period to more winter-like weather. Sure, it wouldn't take rocket science to draw that conclusion, but the maps are actually supporting that, with the evolution of a negative NAO in that timeframe, but still some questions on where the blocking will set up (over Greenland, closer to Iceland, or closer to Canada). More on this later in the week. Enjoy!

Tags: climatology, statistics, election

Add a Comment

Comments

  1. Becky (West Leyden):

    The central plains could see a fairly major tornado outbreak on Wednesday. The stage is set up for a classic clash of air masses. A developing system will pull cold air south and pull warm moist air from the gulf north.

    Posted November 4th at 3:07 AM

  2. Becky (West Leyden):

    The plains might not see a outbreak. The soundings show a strong cap will be in place. However, the SPC has in a slight risk posted for the area; so a few tornadoes could pop up.

    Posted November 4th at 12:38 PM

  3. Matt Lanza:

    Becky…it‘s an interesting setup. Fall (mainly in the South as opposed to the Plains) is considered a second severe weather season. November is a big month for tornadoes in parts of the country so.

    Just a friendly reminder to everyone else to leave politically motivated posts elsewhere this Election Day.

    Posted November 4th at 1:01 PM

  4. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Models are showing a decent winter storm next week developing somewhere in the south.Hopefully it heads this way.Sort of looks like an overunning event as well with the first ice potential for some.We had enough sleet/ice last year…lets keep this winter all snow!

    Posted November 4th at 3:57 PM

  5. Matt Lanza:

    Rob: I added snowflakes for Monday and Tuesday, as we look cold enough for at least some lake effect (nothing major looking out this far). But that system does look interesting. The pattern still looks progressive so I‘m not excited for anything sustained, but it is trending a bit colder….so we‘ll see.

    Posted November 4th at 4:33 PM

  6. Becky (West Leyden):

    Matt: you‘re right about the south. In Louisiana, Mississippi and as far north as Tennessee they have decent chance for quite a bit of severe weather. The storms will have quite a bit of moisture to work with. Thursday could be an interesting day. As for the plains I feel there is still a moderate chance for severe weather Wednesday.

    Posted November 4th at 11:54 PM

  7. olddoos (williamson):

    “I‘m aiming for November 15-20 as our transitional period to more winter-like weather”

    snow for hunting season? that be nice

    Posted November 5th at 1:05 PM

  8. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    TD 17 has formed in the Caribbean…should take on the name Paloma soon and may become a hurricane before it hits Cuba and Hati…areas battered this season.

    Posted November 5th at 5:02 PM

  9. GowettFilmsCEO (Taberg):

    the thounderstorm on sat be strong or severe?

    Posted November 5th at 10:04 PM

  10. Matt Lanza (Utica):

    New entry up with updates!

    Posted November 5th at 10:21 PM

  11. assaumeAlbumn:

    Nice design, and what a name – www.linkjam.com. ;-)

    Posted April 4th at 9:19 PM

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