Watching the next cold front....

Posted August 18th, 2009 by Bill Kardas. 43 comments

Our stretch of hot weather will come to an end tomorrow, bring an end to the high humidity.  We had a dewpoint temperature yesterday afternoon that made it up to 70 degrees!  That's extremely uncomfortable!  As a cold front approaches the area, showers and thunderstorms will begin to fire up along it.  We often talk about how thunderstorms are fueled by heat and humidity...but it takes more than that to create strong storms.  Wind shear is very important in sustaining strong thunderstorms.  Wind shear is the change of wind direction (directional shear) and/or speed (speed shear) with height.

In order to forecast wind shear, we look at a sounding, or a cross section of the atmosphere at a particular point.  The picture posted is an example of a forecast sounding for this evening (8pm).  Pay no attention to the squiggly lines on the left side.  We want to look at the winds to find out wind shear.  Wind barbs, seen along the line in the middle of the graph, are used to illustrate wind speed and direction.  If all those wind barbs are pointed in the same direction (in this case, with the tails to the left), then there's very little change in wind direction with height.  To find any wind shear, we look at the number of lines along the tail of the wind barb.  In our example, most of those wind barbs have two to three lines, indicating wind speeds of 20-30 knots.  Again, the important thing to take away is the change in the graph.  There's very little change from the bottom (the surface) to the top of the sounding.  That means there's very little wind shear going on...and little reason to be concerned about widespread severe weather today.
 

Tags: wind shear, thunderstorms

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Comments

  1. Jmd (Fonda):

    Bill: Thank you for this illustration…I have not come across this type of graph before…..could you provide online address for this? Is this NWS or PennSt? (I suppose I could just google it!) Thanks!

    Posted August 18th at 12:25 PM

  2. Bill Kardas:

    A few small storms are quickly popping up across the area. It looks like some dying showers earlier this morning formed an outflow boundry that’s creating this new line.

    Posted August 18th at 12:50 PM

  3. Kenny (South utica):

    I was suspicious of that potential Bill, noticed storms late last night in the syracuse area and wondered if they might leave behind just enough to pop something today.

    Posted August 18th at 12:53 PM

  4. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Decent cell just came over me. No thunder but very heavy rain and even some wind. Had a wind gust of 32mph.

    Posted August 18th at 1:27 PM

  5. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Dewpoint here just hit 74. Highest I’ve seen all year. Current temp is 82.

    Posted August 18th at 2:11 PM

  6. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    A couple of warnings off to our west. Looks like they may head north of Central Oneida County.

    Posted August 18th at 4:10 PM

  7. teri (Deerfield):

    What is the potential this afternoon for storms stayin together and hitting us?

    Posted August 18th at 4:46 PM

  8. sn (forestport):

    just wondering if this was the actual cold front or is there more to come behind this. thanks.

    Posted August 18th at 5:29 PM

  9. sn (forestport):

    heavy rain here at the monent with some thunder in the distance

    Posted August 18th at 5:33 PM

  10. Adam Musyt:

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    531 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    CENTRAL CHENANGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... OTSEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

    • UNTIL 615 PM EDT

    • AT 529 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MC DONOUGH...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

    • THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
    NORWICH AND NORTH NORWICH BY 540 PM EDT... NEW BERLIN BY 555 PM EDT... PITTSFIELD AND MORRIS BY 600 PM EDT... HARTWICK BY 615 PM EDT...

    PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT
    BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
    AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

    Posted August 18th at 5:36 PM

  11. Matt(Marcy) :

    Jiil/Bill/Adam: not to bring other forecasts in but accuweather is saying the cool july pattern is going to return. :( Is this true

    Posted August 18th at 5:37 PM

  12. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Sounds like this line is getting stronger. I didn’t have any thunder as it crossed my area. Now I hear numerous loud rumbles off to the east.

    Posted August 18th at 5:59 PM

  13. Adam Musyt:

    Matt,

    Long range forecasts are showing a pattern change by the weekend and early next week. How long it lasts is an open question. One thing we do know though is that from a climatological standpoint – as we head into September (two weeks away) it gets tougher and tougher to sustain several warm and humid days in a row. We could (and will certainly will) have our summery days. But the window of opportunity to sustain, say a week, of oppressive humidity is going to get smaller and smaller going forward.

    Posted August 18th at 6:01 PM

  14. Adam Musyt:

    Quite a downpour and frequent thunder. It only lasted for about ten minutes though. I can see breaks in the overcast to the west.

    Posted August 18th at 6:02 PM

  15. Bill Kardas:

    Thunderstorm passed overhead here in N Utica. It sounds much louder now that it has passed though.

    Posted August 18th at 6:07 PM

  16. Adam Musyt:

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    610 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    NORTH CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... SOUTHERN OTSEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

    • UNTIL 700 PM EDT

    • AT 609 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEST END...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

    • THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
    ONEONTA AND LAURENS BY 615 PM EDT... COLLIERSVILLE AND EMMONS BY 620 PM EDT... COOPERSTOWN JCT BY 625 PM EDT... MARYLAND...MILFORD AND DAVENPORT BY 630 PM EDT... SCHENEVUS AND ELK CREEK BY 635 PM EDT... WORCESTER BY 645 PM EDT...

    PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT
    BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

    Posted August 18th at 6:21 PM

  17. Rob (Whitesboro):

    00Z models still hooking Bill away from the U.S. The CMC and GFS were getting awfully close to the Cape on this mornings run but it still seems like it will be a miss. It’s now forecasted to become a Cat 4…if it isn’t already. That’s one mean looking storm right now.

    Posted August 18th at 9:56 PM

  18. Matt:

    What are the chances of Bill actually hitting this area (by that i mean the east coast)

    Posted August 18th at 11:06 PM

  19. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Here are my thoughts…This storm is a monster…no doubt. Most hurricane models hook it out to sea…which makes sense. There has been excellent agreement for days now. Ocean temps up this way are a bit cooler as well (Still can supprort a cat 3). The cold front or trough that pushes this away from the U.S. is never set in stone. We’ve had numerous times where this has been delayed. And this type of storm would take full advantage of every square mile. NWS in BOS hardly mentions the storm….I would be a little more concerned given the size and potential. zzzzzzzzzzz

    Posted August 19th at 1:30 AM

  20. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    1.05” of rain yesterday. That brings the total for the month of August to 3.95” inches here. If this continues, we should easily surpass the 4.19” inches we got in July. The funny thing is, I only had 5 days with measurable precip here this month so far.

    Posted August 19th at 3:00 AM

  21. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Fairfield,

    A great way to send in photos would be through reportstorms.com. You can post them on that website and we can easily download them onto our computer system to show! Another way is through email….weather@wktv.com. Can’t wait to see them!

    Posted August 19th at 10:48 AM

  22. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Fairfield,

    I got your photos. It’s hard to tell what kind of clouds you are looking at with the pictures so small. Probably wasn’t much you could do about it since you said it was your cell phone. It looks like virga.

    Posted August 19th at 11:27 AM

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