Strong cold front + Bill = Bad News

Posted August 21st, 2009 by Bill Kardas. 54 comments

Showers and thunderstorms fired up yesterday and held together all the way until they reached Central New York.  We saw some rain and a few rumbles of thunder, but no severe weather.  This cold front means business.  There has been a history of strong storms and isolated tornadoes with this system over the past two days first in Illinois, Indiana, and then into Ohio and Western New York.

We expect the thunderstorms to fire up as we head into the early afternoon.  With tons of humidity to work with, any thunderstorms that do form are likely to produce heavy rain.

This is a good setup for gusty winds.  Heat and humidity will provide plenty of fuel for strong thunderstorms.  Wind shear looks decent.  Large hail is unlikely mainly because the atmosphere will be too warm.  Any hail that does develop inside the thunderstorm cloud will likely melt before reaching the ground.

Like I mentioned, this front has a history of producing isolated tornadoes.  If we get enough sunshine this morning, it is possible that one could form.  We will keep a very watchful eye on this possibility.  However, keep in mind that it is rare to get a tornado in Central New York.  Even with a good setup that doesn't always mean it will happen.  For what it's worth, SPC puts us into the 5% category for tornadoes...which is about as high as we ever get here in Central New York.

As for the weekend...it's been a rough go.  If you're looking at the forecast models this morning, you'll notice the new developments.  The models continue to slow down today's cold front.  In fact, it doesn't even look like it will pass through the area until Saturday evening.  Then, as Bill approaches the Cape, it could force the front back to the west and draw heavy rain as far west as Central New York Saturday night.  This front was supposed to pass through the area and kick Bill out to sea...but now this process appears to have delayed.  Unfortunately that means some rain to deal with this weekend.

Our models are all over the place with the placement of the heavy rain.  Many keep it in Eastern New York.  Some place the rain in Western New England.  Some also bring the heavy rain as far west as Central New York.  This is going to be a close call, and a nail biter.  The best chance for rain will be late in the day on Saturday into Saturday night.  If Bill draws the front back to the west, some shower activity is possible on Sunday too.  We felt it was better to go with the worst case scenario and hope for the best.  It is a weekend after all.
 

Tags: severe weather, thunderstorms

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Comments

  1. wondering:

    Whens this gonna hit ny?

    Posted August 21st at 8:16 AM

  2. Charles:

    How much rain would be we talking about by Sunday?

    Posted August 21st at 8:27 AM

  3. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Not looking good for sunshine this morning. Satellite is really pouring in the clouds it looks like. Figures…everytime we get a decent shear set-up, this always happens. This was the first time this year I didn’t go below 70 degrees for a low.

    Posted August 21st at 8:30 AM

  4. Working in Utica:

    Rob…from my perspective, that is a good thing. Not too sure I want to see any tornadoes flying around here. I’m sure we will still get some nasty storms, and even though this stuff is fascinating to watch…gets a little scary when it hits close to home. Appreciate your always valuable input, though.

    Posted August 21st at 8:38 AM

  5. Jmd (Fonda):

    Working in Utica: I’m with you on that….5%tornado threat is about 4% more than I like to see! Hopefully the cloud cover will lessen the probabilities?

    Posted August 21st at 9:33 AM

  6. Rob (Whitesboro):

    The day of the Georgetown tornado, we had very little instability. That cell was also embedded in a bunch of rain cooled air. I think we had EHI values of around 4 that day. Shear just makes things more exciting. Even the the smaller cells (low dbz values) need to be monitored for severe weather. We’ll see what happens. Doesn’t look very exciting right now.

    Posted August 21st at 10:23 AM

  7. Bill Kardas:

    Rob,

    No it doesn’t look very exciting right now. A line of thunderstorms has formed southeast of Utica. A tornado warning has been issued in Lackawanna County, PA. That’s near Scranton. There’s more showers to the west…but unless we get some sunshine it may not be as impressive.

    Posted August 21st at 10:45 AM

  8. Bill Kardas:

    Severe thunderstorm watch issued for Fulton, Montgomery, Delaware, and Schoharie County until 7PM this evening.

    Posted August 21st at 10:53 AM

  9. John (Ohio):

    73 degrees, 70 dewpoint, humidity down to 91% from 97% hour ago, still very uncomfortable!

    Posted August 21st at 11:06 AM

  10. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I’m starting to wonder if there will be a severe threat behind the main batch of rain. There’s quite a few tops building in NW Penn. and in NE Ohio. It only took about 15 minutes of sun to get things going there. Very strong shear back that way as well.

    Posted August 21st at 11:35 AM

  11. Nate(little falls):

    The sun is out here

    Posted August 21st at 1:25 PM

  12. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    HPC has moved their Day 2 excessive rainfall area back to the north and west almost right on top of us. Even the Day 3 area is still pretty close to us.

    Posted August 21st at 3:02 PM

  13. Please....:

    We are going to take the kids on a bus trip to the Bronx Zoo tomorrow. Any idea what the weather looks like there? I really appreciate any input. Thanks!

    Posted August 21st at 3:12 PM

  14. Working in Utica:

    Please: Next time take a few minutes to read WKTV’s weather forecast. They always talk about the next couple of days to give people a head’s up. Probably would have found your answer there. Anyway, here it is: Saturday is expected to start out dry, but as we head into the afternoon rain will develop from east to west. The heaviest rain is expected to fall in our easternmost viewing area…areas like Eastern Otsego, Fulton, Montgomery, and Hamilton County. Most of the rain will fall Saturday night and may last into early Sunday. The front eventually passes east by Sunday, with a return to drier weather later in the day.

    Posted August 21st at 4:45 PM

  15. Adam Musyt:

    For those of you looking for a brisk weather change – check out the GFS model run for next Friday. 850 mb temperatures fall to -2 during the day. This is probably quite a bit overdone, but there are indications of a cooldown by next weekend.

    Posted August 21st at 7:23 PM

  16. Please....:

    Well to Working in Utica – if you had taken a few minutes to read what I wrote, I asked what the weather looked like for the Bronx area, not here. What you wrote doesn’t mean anything for that area. Thanks for trying anyway.

    Posted August 21st at 9:02 PM

  17. wondering:

    Radar looks active…Whats headed our way tonight?

    Posted August 21st at 10:36 PM

  18. HMMM:

    Isn“t this a weather blog ,,You would think people would upgrade it once in a while ,(wondering) I see the radar looking —active!!! ,But whats in store for us tonight is the question????????

    Posted August 21st at 11:31 PM

  19. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    HMMM: Actually the rader isn’t active at all tonight aside from the few storms in Oswego County. Other than that it should be a calm night.
    HPC has placed eastern NY in the outlook though for possible significant river flooding for the weekend. I don’t know why because looking at the northeast regional radar there is very little in the way of precip showing up. I don’t think tomorrow is going to be as bad as first thought.

    Posted August 21st at 11:44 PM

  20. HMM:

    Thank you Micheal..Keep up the great work,,Saw the line thought we were in for a active night again,Have a great night,Thanks Again!

    Posted August 22nd at 12:13 AM

  21. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    So much for the “heavy rain” threat today.

    Posted August 22nd at 1:29 PM

  22. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Storms/showers are beginning to pop up across Otsego and Hekimer counties as the sun has made an appearance in between the clouds.

    Posted August 22nd at 5:17 PM

  23. Jill Reale:

    Flooding being reported in German Flatts

    Posted August 22nd at 9:48 PM

  24. Jill Reale:

    Route 168 (off of Route 28) in German Flatts is flooded. A slow moving cell with heavy rain is in southern Herkimer county.

    Posted August 22nd at 9:56 PM

  25. Jill Reale:

    Flooding also reported on 5s in the town of Mohawk.

    Posted August 22nd at 10:00 PM

  26. Jill Reale (Utica):

    BULLETINEAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    FLASH FLOOD WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
    1011 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

    • FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
    SOUTH CENTRAL HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LITTLE FALLS...

    • UNTIL 1215 AM EDT

    • AT 1006 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FLASH

    FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA. FLOODING HAS
    BEEN REPORTED ON ROUTES 168 AND 5S NEAR GERMAN FLATS. BOTH ROADS ARE
    CLOSED IN GERMAN FLATS.

    *DOPPLER RADAR AND TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
    RAINFALL IN THE LAST TWO HOURS. ONE TO TWO MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL
    CAN BE EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT.

    • LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WRIGHTS
    CORNERS...NEWVILLE...KELHI CORNERS...JACKSONBURG...FORT HERKIMER... FINK BASIN...EATONVILLE...EAST HERKIMER AND DAYS ROCK.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
    DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
    UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
    SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

    DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
    ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
    SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

    MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
    AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
    DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
    ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
    ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

    PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT
    ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

    Posted August 22nd at 10:13 PM

  27. Jill Reale (Utica):

    From the NWS: State rte 168 closed with debris floating across it. State route 5s closed. Millers rd closed. germans flats area flooding

    Posted August 22nd at 10:15 PM

  28. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Please try to not travel in Southern Herkimer County. Many reports of streets, thruway flooded. Several people are trapped in a car as well.

    Posted August 22nd at 10:44 PM

  29. Nate(little falls):

    there was ponding on the roads in some spots and other spots it was comeing up outof the drains

    Posted August 22nd at 11:35 PM

  30. heather (5S) :

    thruway something going on all traffic stopped going from little falls to herkimer cars backed up and cops almost in front of my house over there my living room celing caved in too

    Posted August 22nd at 11:46 PM

  31. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Picked up 0.84” of rain yesterday. That brings my monthly total to 4.90” inches for the month of August.

    Posted August 23rd at 2:03 AM

  32. joe:

    is flooding a concern today?

    Posted August 23rd at 10:33 AM

  33. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like heavy rain is developing over the same areas as yesterday. Flooding is possible again in N. Otsego and S. Herkimer counties again. Only .18” of rain here since yesterday morning.

    Posted August 23rd at 4:07 PM

  34. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Unfortunately, the rain doesn’t look to stop anytime soon over that region. We are getting reports over the scanner for minor flooding. I will be keeping an eye on this area.

    Posted August 23rd at 5:04 PM

  35. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Thunderstorm here with 30mph winds.

    Posted August 23rd at 6:10 PM

  36. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Road Closures:

    State Route 168 in the Town German Flatts (Sourth of the Village of Mohawk)

    Robinson Road in the Town of German Flatts

    State Route 5S between Little Falls and Mohawk

    Posted August 23rd at 6:11 PM

  37. Tony - CNYWeather.com:

    Jill, measured .51” in 10 minutes here and 1.22” and counting n the last 30 minutes or so.

    Posted August 23rd at 6:16 PM

  38. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Heaviest rain I’ve seen all year. It’s gotta be come down at the rate of at least 2”/hr!

    Posted August 23rd at 6:17 PM

  39. Tony - CNYWeather.com:

    My rainguage was recording 3.9”/hr for the max Rob.

    Posted August 23rd at 6:22 PM

  40. Matt(Marcy) :

    Rain just coming down in buckets ponding on roads near my house

    Posted August 23rd at 6:23 PM

  41. Matt(Marcy) :

    sewers are starting to overflow. Just amazing, at least 3in/hr right now. They’ll probably issue a flash flood warning for Oneida County.

    Posted August 23rd at 6:28 PM

  42. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Flood Advisory for Oneida County. The wind has really picked up on the hill. We are waiting for the skies to open here.

    Posted August 23rd at 6:29 PM

  43. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Wow Tony…it was probably pretty close to that here as well. That would be close to 4ft of snow an hour if this was winter.The street lights came on right before the storm hit. Quite a bit of lightning and wind at the onset too.

    Posted August 23rd at 6:33 PM

  44. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Send some of that rain up to my house. Only .12” in the last 2 hours. Less then 1.5” for the month of August so far. My well is almost Dry. Rain total has been about 4” below normal at my house since May 1st. Only month I had normal rain was June.

    Posted August 23rd at 7:39 PM

  45. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Had 1.22” in the gauge. Thought there would of been more than that.

    Posted August 23rd at 8:09 PM

  46. Jill Reale (Utica):

    new entry up

    Posted August 23rd at 9:56 PM

  47. Iion resident:

    Our home damaged in April, May, June, July with these bursts of wind and downpours and hail. Insurance company questioning the “alleged storms” its disheartening, and each front that appears I’m actually anxious over what might happen. How do you prove storms, when Ilion may be getting pounded while Mohawk or Herkimer may not, even with photo’s my carrier Sterling Insurance is giving me problems?

    Posted August 24th at 1:12 PM

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