Heavy rain followed by LER...

Posted September 29th, 2009 by Bill Kardas. 32 comments

We're watching part two of this impressive storm system work it way through Central New York.  A trough will shift the winds from south/southeast to west/northwest over the next 24 hours.  The trough is moving through this morning, causing some widespread heavy rain and gusty winds.

In addition to the wind shift, cold air will arrive in Central New York tomorrow as well.  Cold air moving across Lake Ontario means lake effect rain.  Upper air 850mb temperatures drop from +4 this morning to -3/-4 by tomorrow night.  Considering a lake temperature of about 65 (18C) degrees, the upper air temperatures need to fall to at least +5C before lake effect is possible.  Obviously the farther below that number, the more intense lake effect would be.

Lake effect rain will begin forming tonight along a 280-300 flow.  As the low pressure center draws to the north, winds will shift into a more northerly direction.  This happens overnight, meaning scattered lake effect rain showers for many spots, especially closer to the lake shore.  The low pressure center draws north, then rotates around a pocket of cold air that drops in from the north.  It's a very complex weather pattern.  Thank goodness this isn't snow...mainly because it's very difficult to figure out what the winds will be doing over the next 48 hours.  The bottom line is be prepared to deal with scattered lake effect rain showers both today, tomorrow, and possibly on Thursday as well.

Anything falling from the sky in the highest hilltops tomorrow night may also briefly turn over to flurries tomorrow night.  This will not happen in the valley...it's going to be way too warm and will stay plain rain.  Even in the high spots that may see a flake or two,  we aren't expecting an accumulation out of this, so no need to worry.  We'll have an update on that tomorrow.

Tags: lake effect rain, lake effect

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Comments

  1. fairfield:

    Ahhhhh, I still remember the Halloweens past of trudging over snow banks in silly costumes. maybe this year???? oh yah

    Posted September 29th at 11:21 AM

  2. Forestport:

    Yep me too fairfield LOL. If this is a sign of things to come I dont even want to know LOL but then again its bound to happen eventually. Sure is cold up here though.

    Posted September 29th at 1:56 PM

  3. Gordon (Northwestern):

    This is the same kind of weather system we had last year at this time, because I remember how nasty the weather conditions were at the Turning Stone during last years PGA event. In fact it was even colder last year with thunder mixed in with the lake effect rain. Even some snow pellets mixed in from time to time

    Posted September 30th at 8:52 AM

  4. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah, looks like another beauty of a day. Figures were getting LER on a 300 flow. If this were winter and it was LES, this would be hitting us just to our south. Picked up .55” since this time yesterday.

    Posted September 30th at 8:56 AM

  5. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Nasty morning in some spots. Lake effect rain showers continue for Oneida County coupled with instability showers to the north. It’s hard to tell at times which is lake effect and which is plain instability. Either way, its going to stay wet in spots through the afternoon.

    Posted September 30th at 10:25 AM

  6. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I was looking at some Old Forge cams and it seems like they are still a peak up there for there foliage. Even saw some trees that barely even changed. It’s hard to tell if it’s snowing. It is 35 degrees though with precip over their area according to radar.

    Posted September 30th at 11:02 AM

  7. Jill Reale (Utica):

    From NWS in Buffalo: SEPTEMBER WENT FROM THE DRIEST IN 112 YRS
    (0.33) AT BUFFALO AS OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON (26TH) TO THE NINTH
    WETTEST EVER (5.63) AS OF TUESDAY EVENING (29TH). AN INCREDIBLE
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    Posted September 30th at 1:36 PM

  8. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    I’ve heard reports from Stillwater that snow flew this morning.

    Posted September 30th at 2:37 PM

  9. John (Ohio):

    Rain / sun / rain / sun back and forth all afternoon, not showing on radar here in Central Herkimer County

    Posted September 30th at 2:53 PM

  10. Andy Forestport:

    I think we are setting up for an interesting winter…

    Posted September 30th at 3:49 PM

  11. Becky:

    I wonder if the snowline will below the 1800 ft mark.

    Posted September 30th at 9:17 PM

  12. MG(Point Rock):

    I had light rain/drizzle here at 36 degrees, but no flakes or graupel.

    Posted October 1st at 8:01 AM

  13. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    I stumbled across something interesting in the record highest low temperatures data. The record lowest highs drop from low 50s the last week of September right into the low to mid 40s for the last 2 days of September into October. You would think that the temperatures would lower at an even pace (we have 100+ years of data to look at). There’s probably some hints there in the data that this time of the year is vulerable to cold snaps.

    Posted October 1st at 12:27 PM

  14. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Those numbers continue to be in the 40s for the most part through the first two week of October, before they gradually drop into the 30s towards the end of the month. Just thought that was an interesting find.

    Posted October 1st at 12:28 PM

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