Strong signals of cold up ahead...

Posted October 2nd, 2009 by Bill Kardas. 27 comments

It's been a rough go weatherwise over the past few days...to say the least.  Snow showers fell in the Adirondacks yesterday morning in the higher elevations.  Temperatures have stayed in the 40s for the past 2 days.

Heading into the weekend...

More rain is expected later today.  A warm front will race in from the west and bring rain later this afternoon.  A low pressure center will track to the northwest tonight, close enough to bring us light rain tonight.  A trailing cold front will pass through tomorrow morning.  It's possible to see a rumble of thunder out of this tomorrow morning, but the odds are fairly low.  Mornings typically are poor times for thunderstorms in general, but some low topped thunderstorms are still possible.  No severe weather expected.  Drier weather expected for Sunday and Monday, with 850mb temperatures dropping to +3 on Sunday and +1 on Monday.  Monday's 850s will be cold enough to produce some lake effect rain showers along a west/northwesterly flow. 

Pattern change?

So a bit of relief for the weekend, but then the patterns change in a big way.  THe weather patterns late next week look more like November across North America.  A large mass of cold Canadian air will settle across 2/3 of the lower 48 states.  This airmass means business.  Cold weather, frost in many spots, and snow in the Rockies will be the national headlines.  Here in Central New York, a little too early to say, but lake effect rain, plenty of clouds, and temperatures well below normal are a good bet.  Frost is also possible, along with higher elevation snow showers.  We'll have to see how this pattern unfolds specifically to give you a better idea as to when this will happen.

What is going on?  It's not unusual to see one shot of significantly cool weather every now and then, but to get another one within the same week is unusual.  Long range models hint that we may be fighting this cold pattern through the middle of the month.  There may be larger forces at work here.

Developing El Nino a cause?

Our gut instinct lies in the development of El Nino.  El Nino is forecasted to get stronger as we approach winter.  We did a little research this morning looking at past years that also saw a developing el nino.  More specifically, we looked at years that had a weak/moderate el nino average (0.5-1.5) in fall, and saw strengthening in late fall.  We then looked at the average october temperatures.  Here's a look at some of our findings:

Data Results
# of years that fit criteria 13
Average October temperature 48.3°
Climatological Average 48.9°
Departure -0.6°

-0.6° is not significant for us to say "boy there's real evidence that October tends to be cool with a developing El Nino."  We' like to see that number near or above 1 degree for the 13 years at play.  There's more to the data than meet the eye.  Looking a bit closer at the data, you can see a stronger tendency towards cooler weather:

# years above normal # years below normal
4 9

 

 

This shows two things...it's much more likely (more than 2 to 1 chances) to get a cold October under these conditions than a warm one.  If you only stick to the cooler years, the average temperature drops to 46.9°, three degrees below average. 

Granted, there were only a small number of years to look at...mainly because this criteria is very specific.  However, 13 years are better than none.  There's a lot more to the story than just the development of El Nino.  We don't fully understand how the climate changes on a monthly basis, but we do know that ocean currents play a major role.  This kind of approach will be used when we release our winter weather outlook in November.

Tags: cold, climate, outlook, el nino

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  1. Andy Forestport:

    When is the winter prediction going to be out? November?

    Posted October 2nd at 9:53 AM

  2. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Andy,

    November 12th during the 5 & 6pm newscasts.

    Posted October 2nd at 10:55 AM

  3. brian(edmeston cntr) (Edmeston):

    “Larger forces at Play?”

    I doubt its El Nino ….in my humble opinion. If anything El Nino could be keeping us warmer than otherwise.

    The news missed lately is that the Gulf Stream is 30% weaker in the past 10 years than the half century before. Maybe even weaker now. National Geographic News reported a 2 foot oceanic swell in the North Atlantic this spring and summer and attributed it to the weak Gulf Stream and the cooler weather.

    Factor in a negative period in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Jet Stream has more slack to bend out in the east half of the US.

    Colder springs have been evident the past 3 years in the NE, warmth in the west (including Alaska), but this year took the crown. Not surprised to see a colder fall.

    Posted October 2nd at 2:58 PM

  4. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Picked up .65” since noon yesterday. Looks like quite a bit of sun to our west. Maybe we can get some storms developing around here later on.

    Posted October 3rd at 9:01 AM

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