Winter gets evicted on Saturday morning...

Posted November 6th, 2009 by Bill Kardas. 21 comments

Winter's grip has taken hold as it occasionally does this time of year.  This picture was sent in to us from Becky in West Leyden yesterday afternoon.  Lots of places picked up a coating of snow, and many more saw their first flakes of the season.  Not unusual for this to happen, now that we are in November. 

A large trough along the east coast has brought unusually cold temperatures into the northeast.   With no major storms to reenforce the cool weather, temperatures are going to trend upward over the next few days.  In fact, high pressure building in from the west will serve us a nice platter of warm weather by the end of the weekend & into early next week.  The weather patterns will stay quiet for a while. 

Just because the weather is expected to be quite doesn't mean there won't be stuff to talk about.  There will be three things to watch tonight and into the weekend:  cold overnight lows, freezing fog, and a temperature inversion.

Cold tonight

High pressure builds in today, putting an end to the flurries by the afternoon.  Clouds will hold tough, but breaks are expected by late today.  High pressure clears us out tonight...and what do you think is going to happen?  You guessed it...radiational cooling.  Clear skies + light winds + an already cool airmass in place = really really cold overnight lows.  If we struggle to hit 40 today, it won't take much to drop 20 degrees and bring a lot of places into the teens tonight.  On top of that, some places that picked up a fresh coating of snow may still have a little bit of that leftover for tonight, allowing temperatures to drop that much more. 

If conditions are ideal, meaning no clouds or wind at all tonight, widespread teens are going to be the norm by tomorrow morning.  The only thing that will keep this from happening may be the lake clouds.  Lake effect is very stubborn and difficult to get rid of sometimes, and today is no exception.  Though odds are against it, it's possible that a few clouds may still linger around into the early overnight period.  Areas closer to the lakes would stay a bit warmer if that happened.  It will be interesting to see how this unfolds tonight.  The record low is 17 degrees for November 7th here in Utica.  That number should be safe from being broken, though we could come close.

Freezing fog

While this is a longshot, it's possible that we could see some fog develop tonight.  With temperatures well below freezing, this type of fog would be a rare event called freezing fog.  In order for fog to form, the air temperature has to fall below the dew point.  Light winds also must be present.  As the air cools, liquid water condenses, or is squeezed, out of the air.  If fog does form when temperatures are below freezing, it still would form as liquid water droplets.  When liquid water is found below freezing, it's called supercooled water.  There's a long explanation for that, and it has to do with the surface tension of water....but maybe I'll save that for another day.  The liquid droplets float around until they crash into something...like the ground or your car.  Once they touch something, they freeze instantly.  Freezing fog can be a hazard if it lasts for a long time.  It's very hard to predict freezing fog, because cold airmasses don't have enough water vapor to produce fog.  For our case today, it's an unusual setup:  drier air is expected to work in from the west, but if lake moisture hangs around, that could keep the atmosphere moist.  It all depends on which airmass wins the battle.  Watch the dew point tonight.  If it falls below 25 before 8pm, it most likely won't happen.

Temperature inversion

High pressure and lots of warm air build in for the weekend.  Though the air upstairs in the atmosphere will be warm, the low sun angle and lack of wind will keep that warm air from mixing to the ground.  When this happens, we call it a temperature inversion because it's warmer aloft in the atmosphere than at the surface.  It's a very stable weather pattern, meaning that nothing mixes around.  Anything under that inversion (fog, smoke, pollution) gets trapped.  This may also keep temperatures on the cool side Saturday afternoon.  Instead of 50 or better, it may be a struggle just to hit the upper 40s.

Imagine that!  Lots of weather to talk about in what you might have thought was a boring pattern.

Tags: temperature inversion, freezing fog, cold

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Comments

  1. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    If the 12z euro was to be correct i might have to take a trip to New england lol So far havent gotten out of the 30s, maybe the 1st sub 40 degree day this fall !!

    Posted November 6th at 2:38 PM

  2. Wondering:

    Becky from West Leyden sent in this picture, but why doesn’t she blog any more? I miss her input.

    Posted November 6th at 10:25 PM

  3. Matt(Marcy) :

    This is a little off topic but Coming Back from the Wboro football game we saw a train sparking to a halt and there was flames coming from the windows. Any one with any info I was just wondering because that’s a little out of the ordinary

    Posted November 6th at 11:22 PM

  4. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Met a new buddy at work that lives on welch hill. He says he’s about 4 miles NW of Turin. He pulled in with 4 inches (measured 3.7) of snow on his truck. He was a meteo up on the kewanah pennisula in Michigan. He came here speciffically to study LES. I said…your in the right place! That snow fell in just under 2 hours.

    Posted November 7th at 6:01 AM

  5. Rob (Whitesboro):

    He also has some instruments that he used there…it’s very similiar to the BUFKIT. He has full faith in the SUNY stone brook model. According to him, that’s the best model for LES (here). I remember Matt said that too. There’s something about it that I’m not aware of. Doesn’t look good for LES anytime soon. We’re ready if it does.

    Posted November 7th at 7:53 AM

  6. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Officially, we only made it down to 26 degrees this morning. The wind never really went calm overnight, put we had a few lake effect clouds to keep our temperatures up. 18 degrees is the coldest temperatures I have seen so far (Gray Reservoir).

    Rob: The SUNY MM5 is a great model for lake effect snow. I use it all the time but looks like we wont be seeing if for a while, since we will be into the 60s by Monday:)

    Posted November 7th at 8:26 AM

  7. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I’m not familiar with the MM5. It looks like a generic model…but obviously it’s not. No one ever trained me on how to use it. Be prepared for questions!

    Posted November 7th at 8:51 AM

  8. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    Wow u couldn’t ask for a better morning, temps feel more like 60 then mid 40s!!

    Posted November 8th at 9:36 AM

  9. Matt S. (Deerfield):

    Gorgeous day! Can we keep it like this for the rest of the year except for a few weeks of deer season?

    Posted November 8th at 1:20 PM

  10. Jill Reale (Utica):

    new entry is up!

    Posted November 8th at 9:35 PM

  11. axel herkimer :

    when will we get our frist snow fall

    Posted November 14th at 8:25 AM

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