It's almost heeeeeere...

Posted December 7th, 2009 by Bill Kardas. 65 comments

Last week's funky weather is going to be a thing of the past as we head into this week.  A busy week of winter weather is expected...with chances of snow just about every day across our viewing area. 

Today's event is brought to you by a very weak shortwave coming in from the Midwest.  This one is about as weak as they come.  As long as these systems move over part of the Great Lakes, they will produce snow showers.  It's part of the charm of living through winters in Central New York.  Snow showers will start this afternoon and may last through the night for some areas, especially across the north country.  Most areas will see yawn style snow, with a trace to an inch possible for the lions share of our viewing area.  Check out the snowfall map for more details.

Slightly cooler air on the backside of this disturbance for tomorrow.  Today's storm is so weak though, there won't be much cold air at all on the back side.  850mb temperatures drop from -8 today to -9 tomorrow.  A slight northwest breeze may produce some light lake effect snowshowers along a 290-300 flow.  This would shift those snow showers closer to the Syracuse Metro area.  The lake bands will probably be slow to die as usual, meaning snow showers may last through Tuesday afternoon too.  Little accumulation. 

A large storm system crosses the Rockies early this week.  Blizzard conditions across the higher elevations in Colorado today.  That storm crosses the Rockies and grows quite large across the Central US.  As it crosses into the Heartland, it picks up Gulf Stream Moisture and heads into the Northeast.

This is going to be a "double barrel" low pressure system...meaning two areas of low pressure associated with one storm.  In my experience, these scenarios are a pain to predict.  Forecast models have a difficult time resolving the intensities and tracks of each area of low pressure.  This can wreak havoc to a weather forecast.

The parent storm tracks to the north and west of Central New York.  The secondary area of low pressure develops along the Atlantic Coast.  Without the secondary storm, we'd be dealing with a "western runner" and an all rain scenario for sure.  Not the case with the secondary storm.  The development of the secondary storm literally squashes the surge of warm air in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The parent storm still draws in warmer air, but only in the upper atmosphere.  Cold air at the surface with warm air aloft means we're likely taking about sleet and freezing rain.

Sleet and freezing rain form as snow aloft falls into a warm layer in the atmosphere that melts the snow into liquid. The liquid then refreezes as it moves into a shallow layer of cold air near the ground.  The difference between the two forms of precipiation are based on when they freeze.  Sleet freezes before it hits the ground, creating mini ice pellets.  Freezing rain freezes on the ground, creating the "ice rink in the parking lot" scenario.

In my experience, the warm air tends to outperform what the computer models show.  I noticed this trend starting with the latest computer models.  The 540 thickness line now crosses through Central New York on Wednesday afternoon on the 00Z NAM.  That's not a good sign for our snow lovers.  The GFS is not as warm, but still brings in that 540 thickness line close to the area.  The 540 thickness line is what we typically look at for a rough idea of rain vs snow.

Lots can change, between now and Wednesday and we'll keep you posted with the latest.

By the way...anyone check out the cold air coming in behind this storm?  850mb temperatures drop to -18 by Friday and Saturday.  Granted, our models tend to exaggerate the cold air in the long run, but it should still be only in the 20s at the end of the week.  If it's going to be that cold, you bet your pants that we'll be talking about lake effect heading into the weekend. 
 

Tags: snow, lake effect, sleet, ice

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Comments

  1. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    By the way…we’re taking your season snowfall totals today. Either post them here on the blog or send them in via email to weather@wktv.com. The list will be updated tomorrow. Thanks!

    Posted December 7th at 7:55 AM

  2. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Total snowfall for season 2.1”.

    On to the exciting news for the week, BIG STORM! It is really amazing to see the models predicting a 980mb storm in the lakes. This thing is gonna be big, but lets really push it one way or the other, rain or snow is fine, ice is not fun at all!

    Posted December 7th at 8:15 AM

  3. MG(Point Rock):

    After yesterday’s lake effect, my season total is 4.5”. About 2 and a half on the ground at this point.

    Posted December 7th at 8:15 AM

  4. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    I also might add that I’d be surprised if our snowblower contest survives this week. Our viewers are well informed of this possibility, as our web hits for our snowblower entry are exploding.

    Posted December 7th at 8:39 AM

  5. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    2” snow as of 5:00 AM monday 12/7/2009

    Posted December 7th at 8:52 AM

  6. Brian (lairdsville):

    2 inches from the last week and the season as of Mon. am.

    Posted December 7th at 9:14 AM

  7. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    2” inches for the seasonal snow total here as of 9:15a.m. Monday morning. Went down through the valley towns yesterday (Little falls, Herkimer, Illion, etc) and they have about half of what we have on the ground.

    Posted December 7th at 9:26 AM

  8. Mel (Westernville):

    2” from yesterdays LES brings season total to a whopping 3”.

    Posted December 7th at 10:17 AM

  9. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Seasonal total here is 1.9 inches.

    Posted December 7th at 10:52 AM

  10. Nate(Little Falls):

    season total here is 1.6 inches

    Posted December 7th at 10:59 AM

  11. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    3” for the season.

    Posted December 7th at 11:46 AM

  12. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Keep the totals comin! I just updated the list with the stuff on here and I’ll do another update tomorrow.

    Posted December 7th at 11:51 AM

  13. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The models seem to consistently show a general westerly flow across the Tug for Thursday and into the weekend. It all depends on the track of the main storm. Whatever does happen should be pretty intense near the lakes though.

    Posted December 7th at 11:52 AM

  14. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The 12z models are pretty much in line with the 00z models from this morning. A tad colder on the NAM, and pretty much the same on the GFS for Wednesday. Consistency is a good thing at this point :)

    Posted December 7th at 11:57 AM

  15. randy Vitullo :

    I know it is still too early to state how much snow will fall from the synoptic event, but, do you have any idea for Holland Patent; elevation 800 feet????????????? This is for the Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon event.

    Posted December 7th at 1:35 PM

  16. Nate(Little Falls):

    the snow is really gettin blown around here

    Posted December 7th at 1:35 PM

  17. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Light snow here in N. Utica with less than 1/4” in the ground, but it is sticking to the sidewalks and some roadways….Randy it’s too early to say.

    Posted December 7th at 2:44 PM

  18. Adam Musyt:

    0.4” snow so far on Smith Hill. Untreated roadways in the elevations are getting a little slick.

    Posted December 7th at 3:13 PM

  19. Adam Musyt:

    Winter Storm Watches have been posted for Central Pennsylvania for a wintry mix of precipitation on Tuesday Night

    Posted December 7th at 3:20 PM

  20. Nate(little falls):

    its snowing pretty good out now and the side streets are startin to get some snow on them

    Posted December 7th at 3:36 PM

  21. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    seasonal snowfall here in east herkimer is 1 1/2 inches..Its snow ing pretty good out now..

    Posted December 7th at 4:19 PM

  22. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Latest WRF run came threw…looks to be from mid day wendsday to around 6 we are going to be seeing frozen precip as it appears the temps are holding steady around 30* for most of the storm…LES looks real intense in the tug for friday but still ways away yet.

    Posted December 7th at 4:47 PM

  23. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Justin you beat me too it…....

    It does look like it came in a bit colder this run, maybe a trend???? I would rather keep it cold!!

    Posted December 7th at 4:54 PM

  24. Adam Musyt:

    New models (GFS and NAM/WRF) indicate a snow sounding through Wednesday morning at 7 AM, by which time the models forecast 1/4 inch of liquid equivalent.

    This would translate to (what looks like at this point to be) a 2”-4” snowfall before the changeover midmorning Wednesday. I’m going to wait to see what tonight’s 00z data shows and I’ll have a preliminary map on the blog by around 11 pm.

    Posted December 7th at 4:57 PM

  25. heather (5S Mohaawk):

    there is either an accident or fire on 5s they are rerouting traffic back to herkimer in between the thruway over passes it snowing pretty good for awhile here and no plows have been out thruway seems slow but not to bad

    Posted December 7th at 4:58 PM

  26. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Adam:
    Would this changeover midmorning on Wednesday mean to rain or will we hold on to the cold air long enough for some ice? I did see warm air coming in mid afternoon and by that time it appears all the heavy precip is over just scattered about, i guess time will tell…

    Posted December 7th at 5:02 PM

  27. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    Yea the 12z gfs text soundings only show 1/4 inch of snow but at hr 60, theres another 1/4 “ qpf thats right on the border with rain and snow..2m temp 33, 850mb temps -1 but the 1000-500 thk is above 540 at 544.. I dunt see how the NWS in Albany has me at almost 1 inch of qpf..

    Posted December 7th at 5:07 PM

  28. Adam Musyt:

    We probably will have a period of sleet or freezing rain, but it right now it appears that enough warm air will arrive by Wednesday afternoon for a change to plain rain.

    Posted December 7th at 5:08 PM

  29. Deb in Hartwick:

    At 1500 ‘ snowfall totals
    2.75” Sunday morning
    seasonal total 4”

    Posted December 7th at 5:11 PM

  30. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Season total 2.9” .8” back in late October, .8” this past Sat. and 1.3” yesterday.

    Posted December 7th at 5:14 PM

  31. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Picked up 0.75” of fluffy snow today. That brings my season total to 2”.

    Posted December 7th at 5:15 PM

  32. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    Stll snowing light here, just by eye i would say close to an inch has fallen…

    Posted December 7th at 5:40 PM

  33. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    I have 2” inches of snow for the season.. I picked up 1/2 inch of snow today and snowing good here in HP. Hope storm does good for us here.. Looks like mixed and some snow and then LES event.. later this week

    Posted December 7th at 5:42 PM

  34. Nick ( W. Winfield):

    Posted December 7th at 6:05 PM

  35. Nick:

    If you look on myforecast.com you will see a few inches on thursday. Up to 8 inches it saids for thursday. 80% of percipation. Definetly could change Wendsday look how it changed just today. Im praying for NO rain. I can deal with icey mix though. Do you gays think it will snow in the morrning then stay snow or just be snow/ice then changing back to snow at night and stay snow though Thursday? If it snows will it be heavy snow?

    Posted December 7th at 6:18 PM

  36. Adam Musyt:

    Nick,

    We don’t like to discuss other forecasts on this blog.

    At this point, with a storm track as far to the west as models agree on, it’s a virtual certainty that we go over to ice on Wednesday and there is a pretty good chance for a period of rain during the day as well.

    Posted December 7th at 6:22 PM

  37. Nick:

    Sorry

    Posted December 7th at 6:26 PM

  38. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Nick don’t let it get you down, the reason we don’t discuss other forecasts here is because more time then not they are way off. They tend to try and forecast for the whole upstate, where as the WKTV crew try and harness their resources and predict for about a 3-5 county area. More times then naught, the Crew here has been spot on!

    Posted December 7th at 6:32 PM

  39. Adam Musyt:

    Thanks for the kind words, Jeff.

    Nick,

    There’s another aspect to it. Winter forecasting is tricky enough – so just to avoid confusion we like to focus on our own work. We get just as enthused about the snow here in the weather center as the next guy at this time of year, and we’re overdue :)

    Posted December 7th at 6:44 PM

  40. Nick:

    Ok Thanks

    Posted December 7th at 7:11 PM

  41. Tony -CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland, NY):

    Measured 1.4” here in Westmoreland at 7pm

    Posted December 7th at 7:14 PM

  42. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Measured 1.5 inches as of 7:30 PM, still lightly snowing now.

    Posted December 7th at 7:46 PM

  43. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Got 1.5” here as well. Roads are pretty tricky. Still snowing lightly.

    Posted December 7th at 7:57 PM

  44. Chris Issak in the dark:

    I love this blog. It’s my favorite.

    Will you storm trackers be tracking Santa too?

    Posted December 7th at 8:03 PM

  45. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    Still snowing here lightly, wth almost 1 1/2” on the ground..

    Posted December 7th at 8:16 PM

  46. Adam Musyt:

    #44,


    Probably. But we won’t be listening to Chris Isaak :)

    Posted December 7th at 8:46 PM

  47. fairfield:

    is it too early to tell yet when the freezing rain and sleet will hit on Wednesday?

    Posted December 7th at 9:00 PM

  48. Nate(Little Falls):

    we got 1.5 inches from today

    Posted December 7th at 9:02 PM

  49. Adam Musyt:

    Here is a look at our In-house model snowfall for Tuesday Night and Wednesday

    Posted December 7th at 9:04 PM

  50. Adam Musyt:

    #47,

    Mid to late morning is our estimate as of now.

    Posted December 7th at 9:06 PM

  51. Adam Musyt:

    New entry is up.

    Posted December 7th at 10:53 PM

  52. Chris Issak in the dark:

    Awww! Adam, I had you pegged as a Chris Issak fan. That’s too bad. You’ve disappointed me.

    Posted December 8th at 10:39 AM

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