Lake effect ate its Wheaties this morning....

Posted December 16th, 2009 by Bill Kardas. 66 comments

Lake effect bands last night were not very productive.  Shifting winds throughout the night made it difficult for the band to stay in one spot and hold together.  Things have changed since then though, and many of us will see snow over the next 12 hours.  So far, things are looking more impressive than our forecast models have suggested.  Subtle shifts in wind make all the difference with lake effect, and so far the stars seem to be aligned for a productive event.

Winds have shifted into the west this morning, drawing the band further northward.  Areas north of the Thruway and west of Utica will get hit the hardest.  Judging by the size and organization of the band this morning, there's a high chance that a few spots will do much better than our higher numbers that we had this morning.  The higher totals will range between 6"-9" (could be higher).  These areas would include extreme Western Oneida County like Camden, Westdale, Florence, and Glenmore.  We'll likely be drawing a "bullseye" to our afternoon snow map to account for the higher totals.

For the remaining area, most of us will be on the outside fringe of the band.  This includes areas like Utica, Rome, Verona, Poland, up to Old Forge.  Total snowfall in these areas likely between 2"-5".  Outside of the steady snow bands, not much will be happening...at least until this evening.

An arctic front will drop in from the north, bringing snow to all places in Central New York.  This front has the potential to create a brief period of heavy snow for spots as we head into the evening, with an additional 1"-3".  Winds will pick up as the front goes by, reducing visibility on the roadways due to the blowing snow.  Once the front passes by, the weather will quiet down as cold air moves in overnight.

By far the coldest weather of the early winter season will be here by tomorrow.  Highs only in the teens.  As we head into Christmas, the weather patterns will stay chilly, pretty much locking us in for a white Christmas.  More on the long range tomorrow.

Tags: lake effect snow, snow

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Comments

  1. fairfield:

    snowed enough to cover the ground again last night then when i got up this morning, it was all but blown away.

    moderately snowing now. hope school christmas concert is canceled

    Posted December 16th at 10:52 AM

  2. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    Light fluffy snow here in Herkimer..Temp of 23

    Posted December 16th at 11:13 AM

  3. fairfield:

    wow Mike, hot spot! I was sitting at 15 since 7 am, now am up to 18

    Posted December 16th at 11:24 AM

  4. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Anyone have any snowfall measurements? Collecting a list for the noon news.

    Posted December 16th at 11:56 AM

  5. Mel (Westernville):

    2.25” as of noon.

    Posted December 16th at 12:07 PM

  6. Jim (Whitesboro):

    at work in Auburn, it looks like they may have about 3 inches or so on the ground, that is an eye ball estimate. They had nothing on the ground yesterday.

    Posted December 16th at 12:12 PM

  7. Mel (Westernville):

    Sun just popped out!

    Posted December 16th at 12:20 PM

  8. fairfield:

    temp now up to 20 but windchill at 5 Brrrrr, took measurement before wind could pick up anymore. hands are froze now, forgot gloves. winds are about 15 to 20 mph

    Posted December 16th at 12:24 PM

  9. Gordon (Northwestern):

    2.6” of snow as of 12:30 PM. Still snowing lightly.

    Posted December 16th at 12:43 PM

  10. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    I work in Oneida and have had nothing more than a few flurries all day – about a dusting on the ground – can still see the grass

    Posted December 16th at 12:54 PM

  11. Andy (West Exeter):

    Would you guys like the High & Low Temps very day?

    Posted December 16th at 1:26 PM

  12. Mel (Westernville):

    Snow picking back up in intensity – less than half a mile visibility.

    Posted December 16th at 1:45 PM

  13. fairfield:

    winds now about 20 mph, still snowing pretty good clip

    Posted December 16th at 2:07 PM

  14. Mel (Westernville):

    Measured 5” as of 3:00pm.

    Posted December 16th at 3:07 PM

  15. Mel (Westernville):

    Just got upgraded to a LES Wanring here

    Posted December 16th at 3:14 PM

  16. MG(Point Rock):

    Just got home and measured 9.0 inches since this morning. Still heavy snow falling.

    Posted December 16th at 3:33 PM

  17. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Picked up just .8 during the day today bringing the LES total so far to 1.1 inches.

    Posted December 16th at 3:35 PM

  18. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Just got home. Roads are pretty bad…even the main ones. Gettting moderate snow with 1/2 mile visability.

    Posted December 16th at 3:45 PM

  19. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Snowing lightly here in North Utica. So far about 1.5". I forgot to post our updated snowfall map. <a href="http://wktv.bimedia.net/snowfall.jpg"> Noon news snowfall map. </a>

    Posted December 16th at 4:04 PM

  20. Gordon (Northwestern):

    As of 4 PM, I have picked up 5.6” of snow today. Current temperature is 20.2 F.

    Posted December 16th at 4:09 PM

  21. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Let’s they that again:

    Noon news snowfall map.

    Posted December 16th at 4:12 PM

  22. Adam Musyt:

    Hey gang. Nasty drive into work today on Rte 49 with one or two minor accidents. Be careful if you are traveling.

    Posted December 16th at 4:17 PM

  23. Anthony (N.Marcy):

    Adam,

    We have 4.5” here in N.Marcy as of 4:30pm with HEAVY snow falling.

    Posted December 16th at 4:29 PM

  24. Adam Musyt:

    Updated snowfall forecast for this evening

    We expect this band of snow to drop southward as the cold front marches through the area. Be on the lookout for a burst of snow and icy roadways this evening. Dry and very chilly weather will return overnight.

    Posted December 16th at 4:37 PM

  25. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    It has been light snow on and off since this morning, prob got 1/2 inch or so.

    Posted December 16th at 5:37 PM

  26. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Snow has tappered to a few flurries here. Picked up 3.3” today.

    Posted December 16th at 7:06 PM

  27. MG(Point Rock):

    Well, I didn’t expect that. Total accumulation since 7 AM has been 11.5 “ Accumulating snow has ended here, too.

    Posted December 16th at 7:18 PM

  28. Lairdsville ( where it never snows):

    Snow, snow all around except here in Lairdsville…Picked up a dusting lastnight…A dusting to 1/2” for today and presently there are flurries in the air with wind…I see most everywhere else is doing OK though…Sweet!

    Posted December 16th at 7:33 PM

  29. Ryan (Sauquoit):

    Hey all..just a question. What would the conditions have to be for a somewhat decent lake effect snow to reach us here? Were just slightly south of Utica, and these lake snows really never give us too much.

    Posted December 16th at 7:55 PM

  30. randy Vitullo :

    I am elated that the weather will remain cold for the next 10 to 15 days. I just wish we had received at least a foot of new snow today and overnight tonight. Oh well. At least it will be white for Xmas. And, the trails are skiable. Bill….....ski….bring Adam. Does Jill ski?

    Posted December 16th at 8:05 PM

  31. randy Vitullo :

    Four inches in HP….

    Posted December 16th at 8:06 PM

  32. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    I have the same report as randy.. $ inches in HP and 17 for a seasonal total..

    Posted December 16th at 8:45 PM

  33. Gary (Schuyler) at home!:

    Loving the cold weather, sure to lock up the lakes with ice. Should be able to get out and do some ice fishing this weekend. Oneida Lake no, but some of the smaller lakes are ready.

    Posted December 16th at 8:50 PM

  34. Mrboom:

    WHOA .. whast going on the lake effect snow is WAY to our south here in canastota.. .what do i have an anti-snow machine here :)

    Posted December 16th at 9:14 PM

  35. Westmo:

    I guess the EZ Riders Snowmobile club should change their name to the Mud Riders Snowmobile club. (Just Kidding)
    Not much to cheer about though. The trails will be opening up soon with nothing on them to ride on. When will the real snow get here folks??????????

    Posted December 16th at 9:29 PM

  36. Adam Musyt:

    Picked up 3” of new snow today at the TV station. The winds are howling out there. 33 mph gust at Griffiss at the top of the hour and our wind chill index is now at zero degrees.

    Posted December 16th at 10:25 PM

  37. fairfield:

    boy what weather, wind still avg over 20 mph, had a 49 mph gust at 9:55 pm. have been trying since 8:30, shortly after returning from the school concert to get updates and then the satellite inet was not loading anything. temp 16, feels like -2 with the wind whipping. ended counting snowfall about 2:30 pm, too windy… ended up with about 2” all together from today, any idea how the weekend will look for snow amounts?

    Posted December 16th at 10:30 PM

  38. Anthony (N.Marcy 900 ft ele.):

    Adam,

    picked up 5.2” today

    Posted December 16th at 10:38 PM

  39. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Any snowfall reports from the north country?

    Posted December 16th at 10:42 PM

  40. Adam Musyt:

    39,

    Highest I have seen so far is 8 1/2 inches in West Leyden and 10 inches in Glenmore.

    Posted December 16th at 10:57 PM

  41. Adam Musyt:

    And, of course, MG’s 11.5.

    Posted December 16th at 10:57 PM

  42. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    LES total: 2.1 inches

    Posted December 16th at 11:16 PM

  43. fairfield:

    1 outside with a -17 windchill

    Posted December 17th at 7:27 AM

  44. Sean:

    here in oriskany bill, we got about 5” total from the lake effect. hope this helps!

    Posted December 17th at 9:58 AM

  45. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Lets get these models rockin. This is bird feed!!!! This isn’t CNY weather by any means. I want a big storm on the models that make me set my alarm clock! I’m not happy.

    Posted December 17th at 10:06 AM

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