Storm After Storm... Is This Normal?
July 24th, 2008
Well, I get joked with a lot here at work because during the Flood of 2006, I was in Florida on vacation...so the joke is that when I go away, all you know what breaks loose. Well, this year I went away again for a couple days and it happened again. Here's a look back and some info on how typical this is or isn't for our area.
Viewer Pictures
We received a number of viewer photos from the storm damage the last few days. I figured we'd put all of these online for you to check out.
Patsy McCarthy sent us a bunch of photos of the damage in Lee Center yesterday morning.
Tree/House damage
Tree Damage
Similar view
Wall blown down
Close up of wall damage
Structural damage
Uprooted tree
More house/tree damage
Walter sent us photos of house damage off of Route 26 a couple miles north of Stokes Corner.
Trees Down
Tree on house
Big tree uprooted
Another view
Tree on car
Linda sent us a photo of a snapped tree in Lee Center. Click here to view.
Here are some photos sent to us by Laura from Paris on Monday morning after Sunday's nasty storms.
Flattened crops
Flattened corn
Tree damage
More tree damage
Tree snapped
Several trees snapped
Even more damaged trees
Are we looking at tornado damage? Nope. All of this was caused by powerful straight line winds. The Paris pictures show the trees and corn snapped and flattened in a uniform direction. Also, the NWS sent a survey team to Lee, Blossvale, McConnellsville, etc. today to investigate damage. They determined it was straight line winds of 90-100 mph! This is a very impressive storm for this area, especially given the time of day it rolled through...around 5 AM. To see individual storms actually develop at this time and become major downburst producers is almost unheard of around here. This will be worthy of a pretty thorough case study.
Severe Weather and CNY
So a lot of people are wondering... is this really normal for this area? Have we been having an absurd amount of damage in our region the last few years. Well, I figured it would be worth it to show you how each county in New York stacks up against the rest in several severe weather categories. The results may surprise you.
Let's start with flooding. Here's a map of all flooding reports in NY (including coastal) from 1950 through April of this year. New York State's champion in flooding is clearly Herkimer County. Why? Ice jams on the Mohawk/smaller creeks in spring. Herkimer is a magnet for those. Let's look closer though. You can see a peak on Long Island (coastal storms/hurricanes). For the area, it appears to be quite busy around NYC (urban flooding). There's a pretty sharp increase around Ulster/Delaware/Greene Counties (Catskill snow melt/storm flooding). I think Oneida, Herkimer and Montgomery are primarily because of the Mohawk. Broome and Chenango I think are primarily due to the Susquehanna. There is an unexplained spike in WNY in Erie County, which could be urban/small stream flooding from lake breeze storms? Either way, flooding is heavily dictated by winter conditions...more on summer and flooding in a moment.
Here's a look at lightning damage reports. These aren't lightning strikes, but rather significant damage, injuries, or fatalities attributable to lightning strikes. New York State's champion is Oneida County. Onondaga and Saratoga come in second. Notice again, the Binghamton area does well and the Catskill Counties do as well. Locally up north, St. Lawrence County sticks out like a sore thumb.
Let's move on to hail reports. New York's champion? Saratoga County, with Oneida County finishing a close second. Notice a spike near Binghamton again, as well as in Onondaga County. Also, western New York shows up, especially Steuben and Erie Counties. The Catskill counties do well...again.
Alright, let's jump to wind damage from thunderstorms. Again, Saratoga County takes the crown, with Oneida County a close second and Dutchess County a close third. A spike exists in Chenango, Otsego and Broome (Binghamton) Counties. Also, there's that uptick in St. Lawrence County again, as well as Western New York.
How about tornadoes? The winner this time is actually western New York, with Erie and Chautauqua Counties doing quite well. Chenango, Otsego and Oneida are probably the 2nd most active Upstate region, with the Albany area and Mid-Hudson Valley seeing a maxima as well. Suffolk County also does surprisingly well on Long Island.
So after looking at these maps, what can we determine. Central New York is probably the most active region for severe weather in New York State. I think there's a secondary, but equal maxima that occurs in Saratoga County due to the convergence of the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys. The second tier of severe weather counties appears to be the Western New York thanks in part to the Lake Erie breeze. The Mid-Hudson Valley seems to do well, as does Long Island. St. Lawrence County also does well thanks in part to strong storms probably courtesy of being on the periphary of heat and humidity often times. I think this is a bit of an eye opener for some of you.
Summer Rain
So far this month we have 5.33" of rain. We have 9.27" for the summer. Normal rainfall for June, July and August is 11.48". That means we only need 2.21" of rain between now and about Labor Day to exceed normal again. Assuming we do this, here are some interesting numbers. Since 1988 (20 summers), we have had 11 above normal summers, 5 near normal summers and 5 below normal summers.
Again, that average summer rain is 11.48". Well, check this out...
1948-1967 Average: 11.12"
1968-1987 Average: 11.61"
1988-2007 Average: 12.02"
Even more interesting...breaking down by decade...
1950s: 10.80"
1960s: 11.32"
1970s: 11.96"
1980s: 11.28"
1990s: 10.60"
2000-2007: 14.02"
So looking at it in the sense that the 90s were relatively dry in the summer, we sure as heck are getting wetter in the summertime. I think it's more interesting that we're seeing that increase by 20 year periods though. So all this rain in the summer, should not come as a surprise after the way this decade has behaved.
Posted 11 hours ago
by Matt Lanza.
4 comments
